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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion Number 67

2017-09-22 04:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220250 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 The center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past 12 hours. The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical cyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well to the west and northwest of the center. Based on this, Jose has been declared post-tropical. Surface observations from extreme southeast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical storm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical storm warnings in those locations remain in place. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the threat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided. The initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent ASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW quadrant. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and Jose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters of the North Atlantic for the next 3 days. Most of the global models still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h. Jose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift slowly westward. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will continue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually dissipates around day 4. The NHC forecast remains close to the various track consensus aids. Based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii were extended in the NW and NE quadrants. However this wind appears to be primarily occuring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 39.3N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/0000Z 39.1N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 38.8N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 24

2017-09-22 04:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220246 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Satellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and is surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has penetrated the eye a couple of times this evening and the crew reported that the eye had a diameter of 35 nmi and that it has become better defined. Flight-level winds increased a little bit during the last penetration and supported an intensity of 110 or 115 kt. At this time, I prefer the keep the winds at 110 kt since the SFMR measurements were a little lower. The central pressure is estimated at 955 mb. The atmosphere diagnosed by the models, as well as a warm ocean along the forecast track, should favor an increase in intensity. However, most of the models, suggest that Maria will change little and will remain a category 3 hurricane for the next day or two. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus ICON and shows no significant change through that time. Gradual weakening should begin later in the forecast period as Maria reaches higher latitudes and cooler waters. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The track of the hurricane has been and will be controlled by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. Maria is reaching the western edge of that high, and this should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward with no significant change in forward speed for the next 3 days. After that time, Maria should encounter the mid-latitude southwesterly flow and recurve. The reliable guidance is remarkably clustered during the next 4 days. This significantly increases the confidence in the track forecast which is in between the multi-model consensus TVCX and the HFIP corrected consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.0N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.0N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 23.5N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 26.7N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 29.3N 72.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 31.2N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Fortum in discussion with E.ON to buy stake in Uniper for 3.76bn

2017-09-22 01:00:00| Power Technology

Finland-based clean energy company Fortum has revealed that it is in advanced discussions to acquire E.ONs 46.65% stake in German energy company Uniper for around 3.76bn.

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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 66

2017-09-21 22:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212037 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 66 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Jose is still producing some convective bands well to the north and west of the center. The outer-most bands are brushing the coast of extreme southeastern New England, where tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, have been occurring for much of the day. An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed maximum winds near 45 kt, and since the cyclone appears to have weakened since that time, the initial wind speed is lowered slightly to that value. Cool waters, dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause Jose to continue weakening, and model simulated satellite images suggest that Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, or sooner. The intensity models are in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is an update of the previous one. Jose has been meandering off the southern New England coastline during the past several hours. Since the cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents, little motion is forecast during the next few days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and in general agreement with the consensus aids. The initial wind radii have been modified based on ASCAT data from around 1500 UTC. The forecast wind radii follows the guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 39.6N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 39.5N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/0600Z 39.2N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/1800Z 39.0N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/1800Z 38.9N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 22

2017-09-21 16:48:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 211448 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Maria is maintaining a large, 40 nm wide eye, and overall, the hurricane's satellite presentation has not changed since the previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system has not measured flight-level winds as high as last evening's mission, and the central pressure has remained relatively steady. Although there were higher SFMR winds measured, especially to the northeast of the center, the flight meteorologist reported that the instrument appears to be running 5-10 kt too high. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. Maria appears to be moving over the remnant cold wake leftover from Hurricane Irma, but it should begin to move over an area of higher oceanic heat content during the next 24 hours or so. Therefore, some strengthening is still forecast, although it is not especially aggressive given what the latest intensity guidance is showing. Gradual weakening is likely from 48 hours onward due to some increase in southwesterly shear, as well as lower oceanic heat content over the western Atlantic. Still, Maria is expected to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days. The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. Maria will be moving between a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, Maria is expected to turn gradually north-northwestward to north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period, keeping it over the waters of the western Atlantic after moving by the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. The track models continue to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC track forecast lies right along the previous forecast, down the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood emergencies continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.2N 69.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 69.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 70.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 71.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 25.1N 71.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 30.5N 71.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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