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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 55
2017-09-19 04:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190251 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Aircraft data indicate that the peak winds of Jose haven't changed much since the last flight, with similar pressure values and flight-level winds. The wind speed will remain 65 kt in accordance with the flight-level winds, but this could be generous as the SFMR was a bit lower. Satellite images show that Jose has become a little less tropical, with an elongated cloud pattern suggesting that the cyclone has some hybrid characteristics. Jose should eventually weaken in a day or so as it moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream into a more stable environment. Little change was made to the previous forecast, which is similar to much of the guidance, and Jose should become post-tropical in a few days. The long range forecast intensity depends on how far south the system moves, but since the predicted track is still over cool waters, slow weakening is anticipated. The center of Jose took a north-northwest turn earlier tonight due to a convective burst, but it now appears it is back to moving toward the north. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. All of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore of southern New England, but close enough to cause tropical-storm-force winds for a portion of the area. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose drifting to the south and southwest under a blocking ridge forming over the northeastern United States. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. This rainfall could cause isolate flooding. Elsewhere Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the majority of the mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 35.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 36.2N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 39.8N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 39.4N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/0000Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/0000Z 38.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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Remnants of Lee Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-09-19 04:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190240 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Lee Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Lee has degenerated into a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent burst of convection, and no longer classifies as a tropical cyclone. As forecast by global models, strong upper-level westerly winds have become established over the disturbance, and this pattern should not allow regeneration. Some additional bursts of convection could still develop while the disturbance moves northwestward until dissipation in a day or so. This is the last advisory on Lee issued by the National Hurricane Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.1N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 19/1200Z 16.0N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-19 02:05:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190005 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and forecast intensity of Maria. Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria continues to rapidly strengthen. The aircraft measured SFMR winds of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall and an estimated minimum pressure of 925 mb, based on dropsonde data. Based on these observations, the initial intensity of Maria has been increased to 140 kt, making Maria a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall cycles and land interaction. No change was made to the previous track forecast, and the extremely dangerous core of Maria is expected to pass over Dominica within the next hour or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that island. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0000Z 15.3N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-18 22:48:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182048 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from Martinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and this featured has recently become better defined in visible and infrared satellite imagery. The aircraft data supported an intensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that rapid intensification is continuing. Thus, the initial intensity is increased to 115 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is schedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly possible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt. After an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a motion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion may be even farther to the right. A weak subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward for the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward Islands near Dominica during the next few hours. This is expected to be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near the Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto Rico around the 48 h point. Once north of Puerto Rico, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer. The intensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the guidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt in about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach category 5 status. Later in the forecast period, land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some weakening. On top of these general trends, there is also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would affect the intensity. However, Maria is likely to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period. It should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria, the hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area near the eye. The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will not expand significantly during the next 36 h. However, if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could expand to an area larger than forecast. If radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available, Tropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that island. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.1N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 54
2017-09-18 22:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182044 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 The cloud pattern of Jose has not changed much during the day. The hurricane continues to lose some tropical characteristics, and it remains asymmetric with most of the convective bands located to the north of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 65 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Jose this evening and will provide a better assessment of the strength and structure of the hurricane. Jose is expected to remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters for about another day, so even though the shear is high, the hurricane will likely maintain its intensity during that time. Shortly thereafter, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition, which is expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in good agreement with the consensus aids. The hurricane continues to wobble around, but the general motion is northward at 9 kt. The overall track forecast philosophy is unchanged. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the south or southwest at the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 34.8N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 37.4N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 38.9N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 39.9N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/1800Z 39.4N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1800Z 38.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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