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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-18 04:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180246 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Deep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past several hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical cyclone. A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the northwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are stronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be generous. The vertical shear is forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24 hours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough organized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone for much longer. As a result of the shear and nearby dry air, weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday night, if not sooner. The global models show the circulation dissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast. Lee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.6N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.1N 39.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.2N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 17.7N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-18 04:38:49| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017
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Hurricane Otis Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-09-18 04:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180237 TCDEP5 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Otis's rapid intensification rate has leveled off over the past few hours, with the small clear eye not quite as distinct as earlier. Still, the cloud pattern of the hurricane remains well organized. While the 0000 UTC Dvorak estimates had subjective values near 90 kt, a 6-hourly data-T average was 105 kt. As a blend of these data, the initial wind speed is set to 100 kt. Otis is moving over marginal SSTs now, so any further intensification is expected to be slight. By tomorrow night, a combination of lower SSTs, drier air and an increase in southerly shear is forecast to cause a significant weakening of Otis. Almost all of the guidance show rapid weakening by early Tuesday, and this is the solution provided in the new NHC wind speed prediction. Global models suggest Otis will lose organized deep convection within about 3 days, so the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at that time. Otis is moving faster to the north, now at 7 kt. The hurricane should take a sharp westward turn in about 24 hours as it runs into a building ridge over the eastern Pacific, then turn west-southwest or southwest under that ridge. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.9N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 19.4N 128.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z 14.8N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-17 23:01:36| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-17 22:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172053 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 A burst of deep convection developed over Maria's center since the last advisory and has continued to expand in size. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximum flight-level winds of 63 kt and SFMR surface winds of 64 kt. The crew also noted the formation of an open eyewall. Based on these data and observations, Maria is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt. Maria is expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it will likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered for the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence in the NHC track forecast. The updated official forecast is slightly south of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the update of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it is right along the previous track after 36 hours. This solution is between the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA solution. The aircraft data indicate that Maria has a compact circulation, which could make it a prime candidate for significant intensification in an environment of low shear and warm SSTs. Rapid intensification indices are not especially high, but nonetheless, Maria is forecast to continue strengthening and potentially reach major hurricane by 48 hours. If that occurs, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall replacements and land interaction, but Maria will likely remain as a major hurricane on days 3 through 5. Because of Maria's small size the chance of significant strengthening is higher, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance, closest to the HWRF and HCCA models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria has strengthened to a hurricane and could be near major hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will likely be extended northward and westward tonight or on Monday. 2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and could be extended to Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.3N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.8N 65.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 19.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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