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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-17 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171448 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 An 1144 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Lee is no longer producing tropical-storm-force winds. In addition, deep convection is fizzling, and there are only a few convective elements remaining in a band to the south of the center. Lee is downgraded to a tropical depression with 30-kt winds, and even that could be generous given what the ASCAT data is showing. Since the cyclone is already struggling in its current environment, it probably won't do much better going forward since vertical shear is expected to increase to 30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF both dissipate the low in 3 to 4 days, so the new NHC forecast now shows that occurring by day 4. Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt. Even though the ridge to the north of the cyclone is not very strong, Lee's weak nature should cause it to be steered generally westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days before it dissipates. The NHC track forecast remains just south of the various consensus aids, and it is not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.0N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-17 10:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170852 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Lee remains sheared this morning, with the center of circulation just beneath the northern edge of the cloud mass. Consequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt and agrees with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is forecast to remain in an upper wind environment of strong west-northwesterly shear through the forecast period. The global and statistical models all show no intensification of Lee through 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend through day 5. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF show dissipation in less than 4 days. Only the HWRF hurricane model indicates modest strengthening around the 48 hour period. The official forecast is similar to the previous package and reflects Lee degenerating into a remnant low in 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt. The cyclone is currently moving within the easterly mid-level flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north. This ridge is forecast to erode in 36 hours, allowing Lee to gradually turn west-northwestward and continue tracking in this fashion through 5 days. A slight adjustment to the right of the previous advisory was made to lie more closely to the HCCA technique and a blend of the ECMWF and GFS global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 13.1N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 13.4N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 14.2N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.0N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.1N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.9N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z 20.3N 52.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 48
2017-09-17 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170851 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 The satellite presentation of Jose continues to reveal little change in the overall cloud structure since yesterday afternoon. The 25-30 kt of westerly shear is inhibiting any further development of the inner core. Cloud tops have warmed near the center and the cyclone appears to be tilted toward the northeast with height in earlier microwave images. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from the last advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. Due to the expected shear persisting through the entire forecast period, the statistical and dynamical intensity guidance no longer indicate any hint of strengthening, even in the short term. Accordingly, The NHC forecast reflects little change in strength through the 48 hour period, then shows gradual weakening through 5 days. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this northward track, along the western periphery of the Bermuda high, through 48 hours. Afterward, Jose should gradually turn north-northeastward to northeastward on days 3 and 4. Near the end of the forecast period, Jose is forecast to slowly turn eastward within the mid-latitude, mid-level westerly flow associated with shortwave trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the west, closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and near a blend of the UKMET, and ECMWF which have also shifted a bit westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 34.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 35.6N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 39.8N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-17 10:49:29| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-17 10:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170848 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO. Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 55 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The environment should be conducive for continued strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the next couple of days. Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the next several days. This should result in a continued west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these islands today. 2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
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