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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 53
2017-09-18 16:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181447 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Satellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical characteristics. The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric with much of the central convection and convective bands confined to the north of the center. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of 78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt. Jose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24 hours, but it will also be in an environment of strong south-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected during that time. Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition, which is now expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term to account for the slightly lower initial wind speed. The hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been northward at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward speed during the next day or two. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift southward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this prediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 33.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 35.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 38.2N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 39.4N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/1200Z 39.1N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1200Z 38.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-09-18 16:45:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Otis is weakening at a remarkable rate. Only 12 hours ago, the cyclone had an eye, but now most of the deep convection has dissipated entirely. The cloud pattern now only supports an intensity of about 45 kt, but Dvorak intensity estimates are constrained to higher values by the rules of the technique. Given the small size of Otis, it seems possible that this is a rare case where the intensity is dropping faster than the Dvorak technique allows. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt, but it is possible that Otis is even weaker than this. Continued rapid weakening is expected, and most of the dynamical models show Otis becoming a remnant low within about 36 h. The GFS and ECMWF maintain a weak surface low for another couple days after that, but suggest it will dissipate entirely shortly after 96 h. Otis has continued to move northward over the past 6 hours, but it appears to be slowing down. As the circulation becomes shallower over the next 12 to 24 hours, Otis will be increasingly steered by the low-level northeasterly flow associated with a ridge over the central Pacific. This should cause the cyclone to make a sharp turn toward the southwest later today or early tomorrow morning. Little change has been made to the track forecast, which is close to an average of the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 19.0N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 19.3N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 18.7N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 17.8N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 16.0N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 14.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-18 16:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181441 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 After being nearly devoid of thunderstorm activity overnight, a burst of deep convection has developed near and to the east of the center this morning. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with earlier ASCAT data. Despite the development of deep convection, the overall forecast reasoning for Lee's future intensity is unchanged. Lee is expected to be embedded within very strong westerly to northwesterly shear during the next couple of days. These hostile winds, combined with a dry environment, should cause Lee to weaken and become a remnant low in about 24 hours. The global models suggest that Lee could open up into a trough within the next 2 to 3 days. Since the models remain in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one. Lee is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level high pressure system. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight as the tropical depression moves toward a large-scale trough. A continued northwestward motion is forecast until the system dissipates over the central Atlantic. There is not much spread in the model solutions, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.1N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 14.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 18.9N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-18 10:50:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180850 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 Lee's cloud pattern has deteriorated considerably this morning. All that remains of the deep convection are a few fragmented bands in the northeast quadrant. The initial intensity is generously held at 30 kt for this advisory. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase during the next 12 to 24 hours, and this inhibiting factor should prevent the cyclone from maintaining what is left of the deep convection. Consequently, Lee should degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through the entire forecast period, or until the cyclone dissipates in 3 days or earlier. No significant changes were made to the NHC track from previous advisory and the official forecast is based mainly on the HFIP Corrected Consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.9N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.0N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 17.1N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 18.5N 45.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 52
2017-09-18 10:49:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180849 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Jose is certainly looking less tropical characteristically this morning. The 25 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear indicated in the CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model has separated the fragmented inner core of Jose farther to the northeast of the partially exposed surface circulation center. What remains of the deep convective banding features of the cyclone are confined to the north and east portions. The initial intensity is lowered a bit to 75 kt based on the deteriorating cloud pattern and a blend of the subjective T-number Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The aforementioned deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic temperatures are forecast to induce a slow weakening trend through day 5. Because of the significantly cooler water north of the Gulf Stream and a persistently harsh upper-level wind environment, Jose should lose its tropical characteristics around day 4, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast follows suit and is weighed heavily on the global models solution and is close to, but a little above, the SHIPS guidance. The initial motion is a little uncertain because of the significant cloud structure change during the past 6 hours. Shortwave and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveal a more north-northeastward short term motion, with the center possibly as far east as 71.1W. However, an earlier GPM microwave image and the satellite classification fixes indicated a position bit farther to the west near 71.2 to 71.5W. As a compromise, I elected to split the initial position between the two solutions which yields a northward motion, at about 360/8 kt. There are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. Jose should continue northward during the next day or so, then turn north-northeastward Wednesday as a mid-tropospheric trough passes north of the hurricane. After the shortwave trough moves northeastward in 3 days, Jose is forecast to drift eastward, then turn gradually southeastward and southward around day 4 as high pressure builds over the northeastern United States. The NHC forecast track has been nudged slightly to the right of the previous advisory, due primarily to the short term north-northeastward motion, and is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX (ECMWF/GFS) guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on the current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope. Any deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 33.0N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 34.2N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 37.4N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 38.8N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 39.9N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0600Z 38.3N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts
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