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Tropical Storm KAY Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-21 10:47:38| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016
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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-08-21 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210249 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 Somewhat surprisingly, two recent ASCAT passes showed that Fiona is producing 45-kt winds in its northeastern quadrant. This intensity is also supported by the latest ADT estimate. Despite the increase in maximum winds, the next 36 hours will be critical for Fiona's survival as a tropical cyclone. During this period, westerly shear of 30 kt will be at its strongest, and mid-level relative humidities will be at their lowest. Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated, and it's entirely possible that Fiona could soon struggle to maintain organized deep convection. For now, the NHC official forecast shows Fiona becoming a remnant low by 72 hours. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. If Fiona can survive the next 36 hours, it might persist as a weak tropical cyclone through the end of the forecast period since environmental conditions do become a little more favorable in a couple of days. It should be noted that most of the global models hang onto a weak low for at least the next 5 days, with the exception of the ECMWF which shows the low opening up into a trough by 48 hours. For now, the NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 5 as a compromise. Fiona's motion has been wavering between west-northwest and northwest, and the latest estimate is 305/13 kt. Low-level ridging should keep Fiona on this general trajectory for the next 72 hours or so, followed by a northwestward turn with a decrease in speed by day 4 when the cyclone approaches a stalled frontal boundary off the east coast of the United States. The NHC official forecast has been nudged south and west to be closer to the TVCN multi-model consensus, especially toward the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 21.7N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 22.4N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 23.3N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 24.9N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 26.6N 63.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 29.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm KAY Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-20 22:34:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016
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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-08-20 22:33:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202033 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 Fiona's center has again become partially exposed this afternoon in response to strong southwesterly shear of about 30 kt. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, support holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. Continued hostile upper-level winds along with dry air along the path of the storm should induce a weakening trend, and Fiona is still expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or Sunday. The ECMWF model opens this system into a trough during the next few days, while some of the other models hold onto a closed low through the period. If Fiona survives the strong shear during the next 48 hours, there is a possibility that the system could continue as a weak tropical cyclone for the next several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and leans toward the ECMWF model solution. Fiona has jogged a bit to the right, and it is now moving northwestward at about 13 kt. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the earlier forecasts, as the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should keep Fiona moving west-northwestward for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is in best agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 21.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 22.1N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 23.1N 53.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 24.1N 56.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 25.0N 58.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 27.0N 62.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 29.5N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-08-20 16:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 201451 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 Fiona is fighting off southwesterly shear this morning as the center has become embedded under the southwestern side of an area of deep convection. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have held steady, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Although a recent ASCAT overpass missed the center of Fiona, the pass did show 30-kt winds more than 50 n mi east of the center, suggesting that tropical-storm-force winds could be occurring closer to the center of circulation. Strong southwesterly shear of 25 to 30 kt is forecast to persist during the next few days. These unfavorable conditions combined with dry air along the path of the cyclone should induce a gradual weakening trend, and Fiona is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight or early Sunday morning. The ECMWF and UKMET models continue to open this system into a trough within 3 days, whereas, the other model guidance lessens the shear slightly toward the end of the 5-day period and allows Fiona to survive for the next several days. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and leans toward the ECMWF and UKMET model solutions. The initial position of Fiona is located slightly to the north of the previous forecast track, based on recent microwave data. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should keep Fiona moving west-northwestward for the next several days. There remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance, which appears largely dependent on the future strength and status of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies on the western side of guidance, except for the short term forecast positions where a slight adjustment to the north was made due to the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 20.3N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.2N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 22.3N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 23.3N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 26.2N 61.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 28.2N 63.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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