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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 15

2016-08-06 04:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060243 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 The convective pattern of Earl has changed little in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery since the last reconnaissance flight a few hours ago. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. Earl should begin to weaken shortly after the center moves inland, and continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. The cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours if it moves a little faster than currently forecast, which would cause greater interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico. Earl continues to move westward at about 275/07 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours, and Earl is expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and Alvarado, Mexico within the next hour. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies slightly north of the consensus model, TVCN. The main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) recently relayed reports of additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) since 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning across portions of south-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.0N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR VERACRUZ 12H 06/1200Z 19.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 14

2016-08-05 22:59:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052059 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl this afternoon found a maximum 850-mb-flight-level wind of 59 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 49 kt in the eastern semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Additional aircraft SFMR wind data and recent ASCAT surface wind data also indicate that the 34-kt wind radii have increased outward considerably in the northern semicircle, which has required a northward expansion of the tropical storm warning area along the east coast of Mexico. Earl is moving westward or 275/07 kt. A general westward motion is forecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours or so. After that time, a motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected as Earl's center interacts with the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. There has not been any significant change in the track guidance, so the new official forecast track is close to the previous one and the TVCN consensus model. Little change in intensity is anticipated before landfall occurs later tonight. However, the intensity forecasts at 12 and 24 hours had to be increased based on Earl's stronger initial intensity. Due to the large 34-kt wind radii, it is possible that Earl could still be a tropical storm when it is located inland at 24 hours. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) has relayed several reports of rainfall totals already exceeding 5-7 inches (125-180 mm) as of 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.8N 96.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1800Z 18.8N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 13

2016-08-05 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Visible and microwave satellite imagery indicate that deep-layer westerly shear continues to affect Ivette. However, water vapor imagery does show cirrus expanding westward, so the shear is most likely confined to the layer below the outflow level. Nonetheless, Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, respectively, and the UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T5.3/53 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. Ivette is located due south of a mid-level anticyclone, which is causing the cyclone's westward motion. Ivette will soon be reaching the western edge of the anticyclone, causing it to turn west-northwestward and slow down soon while it approaches a mid- to upper-level trough northeast of Hawaii. After day 3, the remnant low associated with Ivette should turn westward, steered by the low-level trades. Although the ECMWF is somewhat faster and farther south than the other models, there is still very little spread among the guidance. The NHC track forecast is just a little south of the multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. Vertical shear is probably not going to decrease, and, in fact, it should increase to over 20 kt in about 36 hours, lasting through the rest of the 5-day period. Ivette does appear that it will reach warmer waters (around 29C) in about 24 hours, which could foster just a little more strengthening. After that time, however, the hostile shear should cause a fast weakening trend, and Ivette is likely to become a remnant low by day 4. The global models seem to suggest that the remnant low could degenerate into a trough by day 5, but for now the official forecast will carry a low through the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.5N 131.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 15.9N 133.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.6N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 17.2N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 17.9N 138.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 141.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 18.0N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 13

2016-08-05 16:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051432 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a large portion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche. It appears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the terrain, but, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation. This was also confirmed by this morning's radiosondes from the area. I prefer to keep the initial intensity generously at 35 kt at this time, and then adjust it, if necessary, when an Air Force reconnaissance plane checks the system later today. Little change in intensity is expected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high terrain of southern Mexico. The circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt. A westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until landfall and beyond. There has not been a change in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similiar to the previous one. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area enhances the rainfall potential. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain were measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.6N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 06/1200Z 18.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 12

2016-08-05 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051431 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Ivette continues to have a ragged appearance on satellite imagery, and recent microwave data showed that all the deep convection is located to the south and southeast of the center. Still, Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the UW-CIMSS ADT, support maintaining an intensity of 45 kt. Vertical shear does not appear very high (about 10 kt according to SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS), but it is from a westerly direction, which is not great for intensification. Since sea surface temperatures remain warm, only modest strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 hours. After that time, deep-layer westerly shear increases over 20 kt, and this should cause Ivette to weaken quickly. In fact, the NHC forecast now calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 4 days. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it lies close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Ivette continues to move westward (275 degrees), but its speed has decreased to 11 kt. Subtropical high pressure located to the north of the cyclone is causing the current westward motion, but Ivette is approaching a break in the ridge located northeast of Hawaii. Therefore, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and slow down some more very soon, with that heading continuing through day 3. Once Ivette becomes a remnant low, it should turn westward in the low-level trade winds. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 15.4N 132.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 16.1N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.8N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 17.5N 137.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.6N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 18.8N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z 18.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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