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Tropical Depression KAY Forecast Discussion Number 20

2016-08-23 16:40:53| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 4

2016-08-23 16:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Gaston continues to intensify. The cyclone's cloud pattern has been gradually transitioning from a curved-band pattern to a central dense overcast (CDO). Within the formative CDO, a ragged eye-type feature has occasionally been evident during the last few hours. A satellite classification of T3.5 is used to increase in the initial intensity estimate to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT values. Only light vertical wind shear is forecast to affect Gaston during the next 24 to 36 hours while the cyclone moves over marginally warm waters and through a generally moist environment. These factors suggest that further intensification is likely during this period of time. By 48 hours, Gaston should encounter increasing southwesterly to westerly flow at upper-levels associated with a potent trough over the east-central Atlantic. In the very least, the forecast shear and a drier atmosphere associated with this feature should result in an arrested development phase, if not weakening. Late in the forecast period, global models indicate a reduction of the shear while Gaston is over warmer waters of 29 deg C, which could allow for some re-strengthening. Through 36 hours, the NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the multi-model consensus and closest to the FSU Superensemble output and the LGEM. After that time, the forecast trends toward the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 285/18. Gaston is being steered quickly toward the west-northwest around the western extension of a mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from North Africa. The ridge's orientation begins to change as Gaston approaches a significant break in the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic, which results in a northwestward heading and a reduction in forward speed during the next few days. A northward turn with an even greater decrease in forward speed is expected by 120 hours once Gaston enters the weakness over the central Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is largely similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.8N 34.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.1N 39.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.8N 42.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.8N 44.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 24.2N 48.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 27.7N 52.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 30.7N 53.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Post-Tropical Cyclone FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 27

2016-08-23 16:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 231433 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease, the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression KAY Forecast Discussion Number 19

2016-08-23 10:51:27| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

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Tropical Depression FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 26

2016-08-23 10:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230849 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Fiona is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone with a small burst of deep convection confined mainly to the southeastern quadrant due to moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on a Dvorak intensity estimate of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB, and an ADT estimate of T2.2/32 kt from UW-CIMSS. The initial motion is a little slower at 290/11 kt. Fiona is forecast to gradually turn northwestward and decelerate as the small cyclone moves toward and into a break in the Bermuda-Azores ridge. The NHC forecast track is down the middle of the tightly packed model guidance, and lies close to consensus track model TVCN. Strong westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Fiona for the past several days is forecast to weaken considerably during the next 36 hours, which would normally support some strengthening. However, the small cyclone is expected to remain embedded in a region of dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 60 percent during that time, decreasing to less than 50 percent by 72 hours, which should inhibit the development of persistent deep convection near the center. The result is that Fiona is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast remains below the consensus model IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM models, and instead follows the weakening trend depicted in the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 25.8N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.2N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.1N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 28.1N 68.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.9N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 30.0N 70.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 30.6N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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