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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-08-06 22:59:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062059 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016 Visible satellite imagery shows that Ivette's center is located near the western edge of the deep convection due to 15 kt of west-southwesterly shear. There has been little change in the structure of the cyclone, and Dvorak estimates remain 3.0 from TAFB and SAB. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Vertical shear is expected to increase to over 20 kt in about 24 hours, lasting through the end of the forecast period. Weakening is forecast, and the global models suggest that Ivette could lose organized deep convection in 48-72 hours and open up into a trough by 96 hours. The NHC forecast is therefore updated to show Ivette as a remnant low on day 3 and dissipated on day 4. Ivette is moving west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. This heading should continue for the next 36 hours while Ivette moves between a mid-level low to its west and the subtropical ridge to its north. After that time, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast has been nudged northward from the previous forecast between 24-72 hours and is very close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.3N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.8N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 138.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.3N 140.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.6N 141.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 18.4N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Remnants of EARL Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-08-06 16:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061432 TCDAT5 REMNANTS OF EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 The circulation of Earl has become disrupted by the high terrain of Mexico, and since the cyclone no longer has a well-defined surface circulation, it is declared dissipated. The remnants, however, should continue to move westward and interact with an area of disturbed weather along the Pacific coast of Mexico, which could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone in that area in about 2 to 3 days. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Earl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 19.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-08-06 10:41:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060840 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016 Ivette is feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment, as conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the low-level center is now displaced to the southwest of the convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt in agreement with various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. However, this could be a little generous. The initial motion is 280/9, as the storm continues to be steered by the subtropical ridge to its north. Ivette should turn toward the west-northwestward shortly, as it nears the western periphery of the ridge. However, in about three days, the tropical cyclone should turn westward as the weakening system is steered by the low-level easterly trade winds. The new track forecast is little changed from the previous forecast and lies near the TVCN consensus model. Although Ivette is expected to remain over 26C-28C sea surface temperatures during the forecast period, the combination of increasing shear and abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery are expected to cause the storm to weaken. The intensity forecast no longer shows any intensification. Instead, the initial intensity is maintained through 24 hours in general agreement with the intensity guidance, followed by a slow weakening trend. The dynamical models are in good agreement that Ivette will weaken to a trough by 120 hours, so the forecast calls for the cyclone to dissipate by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.8N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 16.2N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.9N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.7N 138.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 18.3N 139.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 18.5N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-08-06 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060835 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 The center of Earl made landfall near 0200 UTC just south of Veracruz, Mexico. Since then, the center has moved farther inland and the cloud pattern has decayed. There is little data near the center at this time, so it is estimated that the intensity has decreased to 35 kt. Continued rapid weakening is expected, and the low-level circulation of Earl should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico after 12 hours. The remnants of Earl are expected to move westward and interact with an area of disturbed weather along the Pacific coast of Mexico, which could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone in that area in 2-3 days time. The initial motion is 275/9, and a general westward motion is forecast until the cyclone dissipates. The main threat from Earl and its remnants will continue to be heavy rainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico. The rain threat will continue after the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 19.0N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 19.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-08-06 05:00:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060300 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 The convective structure of Ivette has not changed substantially this evening with most of the convection limited to the northeastern semicircle. A blend of the TAFB/SAB Dvorak, CIMSS Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates indicate about 50 kt at the initial time, unchanged from the previous advisory. Ivette remains small in size, as indicated by the limited central dense overcast and tropical-storm-force wind radii from CIRA/AMSU. While Ivette remains over 28C water, the vertical shear appears to still be disrupting the convection, as the center - like yesterday - is occasionally showing up just west of the cirrus canopy. Even though the shear is quite low (5 to 10 kt from the CIMSS and SHIPS analyses), Ivette's small size and moderate intensity isn't enough to overcome the shear's detrimental effects. The tropical storm has about 12-24 hours of time left to intensify before the combination of cool SSTs, dry stable air, and strong southwesterly vertical shear kicks in. Once that combination begins, Ivette should steadily weaken and become a remnant low in about four days and dissipate shortly afterwards. The NHC intensity forecast, based upon the IVCN intensity consensus technique, indicates a slight intensification shortly before weakening commences in a couple days. It is of note that the only model to show significant strengthening - COAMPS, boosting Ivette to about 60 kt - has been the best performing guidance during the cyclone's lifetime. There have been several helpful microwave images of Ivette providing an accurate assessment of the system's center. These indicate that the tropical storm has not yet turned west-northwestward, as Ivette continues moving westward at 9 kt, due the steering influence of a mid-level subtropical ridge to its north. Despite the current motion, Ivette should turn toward the west-northwestward shortly, as it begins to round the western periphery of the ridge. However, in about three days, the tropical cyclone should bend back toward west as it is advected along in the easterly trade winds. The NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered members of the multi-model ensemble (TVCN) and is somewhat south of the track from the previous advisory at 12 and 24 hours because of the unexpected continuation of westward motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 15.4N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 15.8N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 16.6N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 17.4N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 18.2N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 18.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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