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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-08 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 081436 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 Javier has not become better organized since yesterday evening, with a significant decrease in the associated deep convection aside from a small burst near or north of the estimated center. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain at T3.0 corresponding to 45 kt, and this will be the advisory intensity. Since the vertical shear is forecast to remain very low for the next couple of days, some strengthening is still forecast while Javier moves near the Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours is above the intensity guidance, but close to the latest SHIPS prediction. Within the next couple of days, cooling SSTs, land interaction, and an increasingly stable air mass are likely to induce weakening. Although the center is difficult to locate, it is estimated that the northwestward motion, 310/9 kt, continues. Javier is forecast to continue moving around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over Texas. The official forecast is slightly to the left of the previous one but on the eastern side of the track guidance suite. Although the NHC forecast does not show Javier becoming a hurricane, it is prudent to keep the hurricane warning in place for the southern Baja California peninsula, at least until an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 22.5N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 23.4N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 24.4N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 25.7N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-08 10:52:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080852 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 The tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since the previous advisory. The convective banding structure that was noted during the evening has become less apparent, but a new burst of convection has recently developed near the estimated center. A couple of ASCAT overpasses between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the center is located slightly northeast of the previous estimates, and it may be near the northeastern portion of the new convective mass, due to some northeasterly shear. Javier's initial wind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory, which is based on Dvorak classifications of T3.0 and the ASCAT data which showed winds to around 40 kt. Javier will be traversing very warm water and the shear is expected to decrease today, which should allow for strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The intensity guidance is slightly lower than before, so the NHC forecast shows a little less strengthening than earlier. Although it is not explicitly indicated in the NHC forecast, Javier could become a hurricane when it is near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. In a day or so, decreasing SSTs, land interaction, and a more stable airmass are expected to cause weakening. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains the same from the previous advisory. Javier should continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward speed while it is steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge over Texas. The track guidance is in generally good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.2N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 23.1N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.2N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.4N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 27.2N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-08 05:00:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080300 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 Although cloud tops have warmed some since the previous advisory, the overall convective cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved and passive microwave imagery indicate that the internal structure has also improved. The intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on consensus T3.0/45 kt satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a T3.2/49 kt objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT. Microwave fixes indicate that the initial motion estimate is now 310/11 kt. Javier is forecast to move along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Texas, with the cyclone passing very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in 24-72 hours. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this track scenario, and the official forecast track closely follows the consensus model TVCN. A 0121Z SSMI/S image indicated that Javier appears to be developing a small mid-level eye feature. Given the compact inner-core structure of the cyclone, along with low shear of 5-8 kt and SSTs of at least 29C along the forecast track, at least steady strengthening seems reasonable for the next 36 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the available guidance and closely follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.6N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.2N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 26.5N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 12/0000Z 28.9N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Rio Olympic effect: public discussion on issue of climate change increases
2016-08-08 02:24:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
American Bazaar: When the Rio Olympics begins with a truly spectacular show at Rio, Brazil, just a couple of days ago, it had a segment on climate change that staged the perils of sea level rise on vulnerable nations and Ed Hawkins compelling visual spiral indicating global warming made it truly charming. It was a big hit on social media that also added the Leonardo di Caprios speech about climate change at the Oscars . This Rio Olympic Effect and the DiCaprio Effect resonates with the public on this issue...
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-08-07 22:46:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072046 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 Javier has not become better organized during the day, and the associated deep convection is ragged-looking and not very extensive. Based on the earlier surface wind report from Manzanillo, the current intensity is held at 40 kt. The storm is experiencing some easterly shear, but gradual intensification while Javier passes over the warm waters to the south of the Baja California peninsula seems likely. The official intensity forecast again follows the SHIPS model guidance. The cyclone accelerated somewhat today, and the initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. Javier is moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. In the next couple of days, the system should gradually turn toward the right as a trough near California weakens the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF global models have shifted to the left of their previous forecasts, so the official forecast is also shifted in that direction. The official forecast track lies between the GFS/ECMWF solutions and the latest HWRF model run. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 19.5N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 20.4N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 21.4N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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