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Accountability Focus Group's Key Areas of Discussion with Attached Meeting Minutes
2016-08-12 17:34:26| PortlandOnline
Synopsis of Accountability Focus Group's Key Areas of Discussion Interoffice Memorandum PDF Document, 1,854kbCategory: Toolbox/Resources for Neighbors
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-09 22:31:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092031 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 Satellite images show that the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore the cyclone is now being designated as a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the last advisory on Javier. Surface observations and ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 25 kt. The low should continue to gradually spin down, and it is likely to dissipate by Thursday. The center has become less well defined, but the best estimate of initial motion is around 310/9 kt. The low is likely to continue moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.6N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-09 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091434 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 The only areas of deep convection associated with Javier are some small patches of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is embedded within an air mass that is forecast to become drier and more stable with time. Therefore the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours, or sooner. The low is expected to dissipate over the central Baja California peninsula later in the forecast period. The center has become less defined but is believed to be located just offshore between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro, and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/6. Over the next couple of days, Javier or its remnant low should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system. The official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 23.8N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.8N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 26.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-09 04:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090245 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Javier at 700 mb this evening, as part of a research mission, measured peak SFMR-observed surface winds of 46 kt. A dropsonde measured a central pressure of 1003 mb, but with a 45-kt surface wind, which equates to a pressure of about 999 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been lowered slightly to 50 kt. The reconnaissance wind data also indicate that Javier remains a compact tropical cyclone, and that the flight-level center is tilted southwest of the surface center. Smoothing through the various wobbles in the fixes yields an initial motion estimate of 315/04 kt. Javier is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the western periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States and northern Mexico. The weak steering flow could result in some erratic motion as Javier moves closer to southern Baja California and interacts with the mountainous terrain. The new NHC track is essentially just and update of the previous advisory track, which takes Javier up the west side of the Baja California peninsula, and lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCN. Aircraft flight-level data also revealed that dry mid-level air had penetrated into the inner-core region, and this was probably the main reason for the erosion of the deep convection in the northeastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Although some modest convection has recently developed in the southeastern quadrant, it is less likely now that Javier will be able to sustain any significant intensification due to the aforementioned dry mid-level air and the small cyclone interacting with land through most of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast closely follows the consensus intensity model, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 22.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 23.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.1N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 27.3N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-08 22:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082050 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently investigated Javier on a long mission from base. They measured peak SFMR-observed surface winds of 54 kt and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 52 kt. On the basis of these data, the intensity is set at 55 kt. Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight while the center pass near or over the extreme southern Baja California peninsula. Later the period, cooler SSTs, interaction with land, and an increasingly stable air mass should cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. Center fixes from the aircraft give an initial motion estimate of 315/8. Javier is expected to continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. The official track forecast lies close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Observations from the aircraft indicate that Javier is a small tropical cyclone. Although some slight expansion of the wind field may occur over the next day or so, the radius of tropical-storm-force winds is not expected to be much more than 60 n mi. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.5N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.3N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.2N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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