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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-09-27 16:57:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015

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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-09-27 10:46:02| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015

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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 36

2015-09-27 10:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270843 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Since the larger convective burst late yesterday afternoon, Ida has only produced a few small areas of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Satellite images also suggest that the center has become somewhat less defined over the past 24 hours. Based on the decrease in organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 25 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Ida is currently in an environment of moderate westerly shear and dry mid-level air, and little change in strength is anticipated during the next few days. By 72 hours, Ida is forecast to encounter strong upper-level northerly winds, which should cause the system to finally degenerate to a remnant low, however, it would not be surprising if this occurred sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/4. Ida is forecast to turn west-southwestward at a faster forward speed by tonight as a low-level ridge strengthens to the north of the depression. When the ridge moves eastward in a couple of days, Ida or its remnant should turn westward. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 24.3N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 23.6N 50.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 23.2N 52.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 23.2N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 24.0N 58.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.2N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-09-27 04:50:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015

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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 35

2015-09-27 04:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270234 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 Deep convection again pulsed near and to the east of the center of Ida this evening, but is now waning as shear of around 20 kt continues over the cyclone. The most recent ASCAT missed Ida, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt based on persistence. The statistical models continue to suggest that Ida will intensify later in the forecast period, while the GFS and ECMWF show the circulation weakening and eventually elongating and dissipating by day 5 as a front impinges on Ida from the north. The NHC forecast continues to follow the solution of the global models given that the cyclone is currently embedded in a dry environment with moderate shear. It would also not be surprising if Ida were to dissipate sooner than forecast. The initial motion has been to the left of and slower than the previous advisory, and is estimated at 285/04. A continued bend of Ida's track toward the left is forecast as the shallow cyclone comes under the influence of an amplifying low-level ridge to the north. Much of the guidance has trended to the left and faster this cycle, and given the change in the initial motion and the trend in the guidance, the new NHC track is faster and about a half degree south of the previous one. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF through 48 hours and not far from the GFS after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 24.3N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 24.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 23.8N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.2N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 22.8N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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