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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-28 04:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280239 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Late-afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area located midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda has become well defined. Since the low has already had persistent and organized deep convection, the system is being declared a tropical depression. A 2312 UTC SSMI/S overpass indicated that the center of the depression has become at least partially exposed to the northwest of a large convective mass due to moderate northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, based on a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB. The depression is expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly winds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic beginning on Monday. In fact, global models show the shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone either becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days. The intensity forecast is below the multi-model consensus through the forecast period, closest to the HWRF solution. A low- to mid- level ridge north and northeast of the cyclone is steering the lower half of the depression's circulation northwestward while increasing northwesterly winds aloft are opposing this motion. The net deep-layer mean flow is therefore providing for only a slow northwestward motion of 315/02 kt, a rather uncertain estimate considering the scatter of recent fixes. This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of days, resulting in a the cyclone's drifting west-northwestward or northwestward. The low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward in 2-3 days as a trough reaches the eastern seaboard of the United States, and the increasingly shallow system should turn northwestward and north-northwestward at a faster forward speed if it still exists. The track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 27.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 27.7N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 27.9N 69.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 70.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 28.8N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 31.0N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-28 04:39:02| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-09-27 22:35:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
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Post-Tropical Cyclone IDA Forecast Discussion Number 38
2015-09-27 22:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 272032 TCDAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Ida has lacked organized deep convection for about 15 hours now, and it no longer meets the convective requirement of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Ida is classified as a remnant low and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The circulation of the low has become increasingly elongated today, due to the interaction with a cold front a few hundred n mi to the north of the cyclone. The front is expected to move closer to the remnant low tonight and Monday, and this will likely cause the cyclone to open up into a trough within the next few days. The low is moving slowly westward. A faster west-southwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days as a low to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. The latest official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Additional information on the remnants of Ida can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 24.5N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/0600Z 24.1N 50.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1800Z 23.9N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 24.0N 55.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 24.5N 57.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 37
2015-09-27 16:59:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271459 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Ida is very disorganized this morning. Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation of the depression is becoming elongated from north to south, though the low-level center is still distinct. Deep convection is scattered and not organized, and this system is barely classifiable using Dvorak metrics. The initial intensity remains 25 kt. The cyclone is embedded in a dry atmosphere, which is likely the reason why convection is limited. In addition, the interaction with a cold front about 350 n mi to the north of Ida is causing the circulation to become stretched as described above. Since the frontal boundary is expected to move closer to Ida during the next day or so before stalling, it is possible that Ida could open up into a trough during that time. It is also possible that Ida could become a remnant low by then if organized deep convection does not return. Based on the negative factors for the tropical cyclone, prediction of when Ida becomes a remnant low and dissipates have been moved up 24 hours from the previous advisory, and these could occur much sooner than forecast. Ida has jogged a bit to the north recently, but a long-term motion is west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A turn to the west-southwest is expected later today, followed by a faster westward motion tomorrow and Tuesday as a low to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The track guidance has changed little this cycle, and only small changes were made to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 24.8N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 23.9N 51.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 23.8N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 25.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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depression
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