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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 24

2015-10-03 17:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031550 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 This special advisory is to adjust the initial and forecast intensity through 36 hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just penetrated the eye of Joaquin and measured 144 kt at 700 mb and SFMR winds of around 135 kt. No change in the forecast track is necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1600Z 26.0N 71.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 23

2015-10-03 16:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031442 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 The satellite presentation has improved during the past 12 hours. A distinct eye is clearly observed in conventional imagery, and it is surrounded by very deep convection. A blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 and 6.5 T-numbers, and a peak flight-level wind of 128 kt at 700 mb reported by a reconnaissance aircraft yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. The central pressure has dropped to 936 mb in the last reconnaissance fix. Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus, calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters. By the end of the forecast period, Joaquin is expected to have lost tropical characteristics. Reconnaissance and satellite fixes indicate that Joaquin is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at an average speed of 12 kt. The hurricane is currently embedded within the flow between a deep eastward-moving trough over the southeastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. As the trough over the United States swings eastward, the hurricane will likely turn more to the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed during the next 12 to 24 hours. Then, as the trough weakens, the hurricane could slow down while moving west of Bermuda during late Sunday. After that time, Joaquin is expected to become fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate eastward toward the northeast Atlantic. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, on top of the multi-model consensus, and in the middle of the guidance envelope. Although the confidence in the track forecast has increased due to the good agreement among models, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with stronger winds closer to Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 25.8N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 30.7N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.0N 66.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 35.0N 65.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 39.0N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 43.5N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 48.5N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 21

2015-10-03 05:00:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030300 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 Fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate the core of Joaquin has gradually begun to move away from the central Bahamas. There were a couple of SFMR winds earlier which suggested that the winds could be 115 kt in the southeastern eyewall, but the cloud pattern has deteriorated since these winds were measured. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 110 kt. The eye was over San Salvador Island for several hours where the pressure dropped to near 944 mb. The Director of the Meteorological Service of the Bahamas reported to NHC that there was considerable damage on some islands of the central Bahamas. Joaquin could fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours, but given that the shear is expected to increase, the NHC forecast calls for very gradual weakening. Joaquin is anticipated to lose tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period. Joaquin has recurved and is now moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 9 kt. Joaquin is embedded within the southwesterly flow between a deepening trough over the eastern Unites States and a a weakening subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. As the trough swings eastward, Joaquin will become fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This flow pattern will steer Joaquin to the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. The multi-model consensus has shifted eastward tonight, and consequently the NHC forecast was also shifted eastward a little. However, the NHC forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and additional eastward adjustments of the track could be necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 24.7N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 25.7N 72.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 27.9N 70.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 30.4N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 33.0N 67.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 37.0N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 41.5N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 46.5N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 20

2015-10-02 22:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022055 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin has weakened a little since the last advisory, with the central pressure rising to 942 mb. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to 110 kt. Subsequent observations from San Salvador Island and dropsondes from a NASA aircraft suggest the pressure is still near 942 mb. While the hurricane continues to produce cold cloud tops in the eyewall, the convective pattern currently looks ragged in infrared imagery, and only occasional hints of a eye are apparent in visible imagery. The initial motion is now 360/6. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane, while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the front during the next couple of days. While this occurs, a mid- to upper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move west-northwestward to the north of Joaquin. These developments should steer Joaquin northward for the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the northeast. The track guidance is now in good agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward between the United States and Bermuda, with a short-lived northward turn in the 48-72 hour period. Eventually, the cyclone is expected to move into the westerlies and move quickly east-northeastward across the North Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast and now lies near the consensus models. Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical wind shear for another 12-24 hours or so, and during this time some fluctuations in intensity are possible. After 24 hours, the shear is forecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is expected to begin around 96 hours and be complete by 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and lies near the intensity consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas should continue for several more hours. 2. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S. east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather Prediction Center and your local forecast office. 3. Since the direct threat of hurricane conditions to land areas is diminishing significantly, this will be the last set of key messages unless the threat increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 25.1N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 29.2N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 31.7N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 36.5N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 40.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

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TSP Update Discussion Draft

2015-10-02 17:56:37| PortlandOnline

Tags: discussion update draft tsp

 

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