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Judy Woodruff to moderate discussion on manufacturing.

2015-09-21 14:31:14| Industrial Newsroom - All News for Today

NAM, Iowa Public Television, and Vermeer Corporation have announced that Judy Woodruff, co-anchor and managing editor of The PBS NewsHour and veteran moderator of presidential and vice presidential debates, will moderate the 2016 Presidential Candidates Forum on Manufacturing in Pella, IA. During bipartisan forum, presidential candidates in the Iowa caucuses will have opportunity to address chief concerns, topics, and policies most pertinent to manufacturers and the manufacturing economy.

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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2015-09-21 10:58:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210858 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015 A significant increase in the amount and organization of deep convection has occurred during the past 6 hours. A large CDO-like feature with a connecting curved band in the southern quadrant has developed, and cloud tops have cooled significantly to colder than -80C. However, the low-level circulation center is not embedded in the core of the main convective cloud mass, and is instead located about 30 n mi inside the western portion of the cloud shield. This suggests that some westerly vertical shear still exists. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB using a shear pattern. Recent AMSU and AMSR-2 microwave satellite fixes indicate that Ida's forward motion has continued to decrease and is now 330/07 kt. Global models indicate that the subtropical ridge to the north of Ida is rapidly eroding as a broad mid-/upper-level trough to the northeast and east of the cyclone slowly retrogrades westward. Steering currents are forecast to collapse within the next 12-24 hours, resulting in Ida becoming nearly stationary during that time. By 36-48 hours, Ida is expected to become embedded within the western portion of the aforementioned east-west oriented trough and move slowly southeastward through 72 hours or so. After that time, the trough is forecast to weaken, allowing the cyclone to move slowly north-northwestward to northward. The resultant model guidance more closely resembles the proverbial squashed spider pattern, which is usually indicative of slow and meandering motion. The NHC official track forecast follows suit, lying close to the previous one and the consensus model TVCA. Once the low-level center becomes juxtaposed with the mid-/and upper-level circulations, significant strengthening should occur. Given that vertical wind shear values are forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to decrease to near 5 kt within the next 12 hours or so, at least slow and steady intensification should continue for the next 24-36 hours. After that time, the vertical shear is forecast to increase from the west and northwest as the aforementioned trough begins to interact with Ida. The intensity is forecast to decrease from 48-72 hours, followed by re-strengthening as the trough and its associated upper-level shear lifts out to the northeast, leaving Ida in a weak col region. Given that Ida will be over SSTs of at least 29C and within an upper-level cold pool by days 4 and 5, instability should increase and act to regenerate vigorous convection despite mid-level humidity values of near 50 percent. The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous forecast and the intensity consensus model IVCN, and is similar to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM, GFDL, and ECMWF intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 19.8N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.7N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 21.3N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 21.4N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 21.1N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 20.8N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 21.8N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-09-21 10:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210858 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 The center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E moved inland a little before 0600 UTC over the south-central portion of the Baja California peninsula with estimated maximum winds of about 30 kt. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 0400 and 0500 UTC showed a narrow swath of southeasterly winds of 35-40 kt over the Gulf of California well to the northeast of the circulation center. These winds were likely being enhanced by the local terrain and may not directly be associated with the depression. The cyclone is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, but this activity is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the circulation due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. It appears that the low- and mid-level centers of the system have separated, and since even stronger shear and land interaction with mainland Mexico is expected, weakening is forecast. The depression will likely become a remnant low or dissipate entirely in about 24 hours when it is forecast to be over the southwestern United States. The system is moving north-northeastward at about 15 kt, embedded in the flow between a mid-level high pressure system over Mexico and a cut off low well to the west of Baja California. This general motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The main hazard from the depression is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico. Portions of these areas could receive rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible during the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.7N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 29.9N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 32.9N 110.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 11

2015-09-21 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210248 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 Ida is showing new signs of life. A new burst of intense convection has developed over and east of the center, suggesting that westerly shear over the cyclone could be decreasing. Although Ida's cloud pattern has recently become better organized, an ASCAT pass from 2358 UTC indicates that there has been no increase in winds, with peak uncontaminated winds of 37 kt. Thus the initial wind speed is held at 40 kt. A large upper-level low northeast of the Lesser Antilles is moving away from Ida, resulting in a gradual relaxation of the westerly shear over the cyclone while the surrounding flow gradually becomes more diffluent. All other factors being equal, this change in the upper-air pattern should favor some intensification during the next 24 hours or so, perhaps more than forecast. After 36 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough amplifying southwestward from the eastern Atlantic should induce an inhospitable environment of strong northwesterly shear, drier mid-tropospheric air and confluence over Ida. The storm's slow movement by that time could also cause enhanced oceanic upwelling and locally cooler waters underneath the cyclone. It is hard to imagine that these conditions would not induce weakening, yet global models show Ida re-strengthening from days 3 to 5 likely, probably due to a baroclinic forcing arising from the storm's interaction with the trough. The new intensity forecast shows more intensification in the short term, and is above all of the intensity guidance. Given the larger than normal uncertainty in the extended range, the intensity is essentially flatlined not far from the multi-model consensus. Recent fixes suggest that Ida's forward speed is decreasing, and the initial motion estimate is 310/12. Ida is quickly approaching a weakness in the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge along 50W, which should result in the cyclone's forward speed decelerating during the next 12 to 24 hours. Steering currents should collapse in about 36 hours in response to the eastern Atlantic trough deepening southwestward, and Ida should suddenly come to a halt and then meander with some eastward component of motion for a few days. As the effects of the trough diminish by day 4, a majority of the track guidance shows Ida moving faster toward the north or north- northwest between two mid-level ridges. The GFS is left of nearly all the guidance, however, showing Ida encountering a blocking ridge that would cause a more westerly track. The details of the track forecast between days 3 to 5 are still in greater than normal doubt, and thus the track is hardly adjusted through 72 hours, but is shifted toward the north and east after that time toward the multi-model consensus without the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.9N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.2N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 21.0N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 21.4N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 21.2N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 20.6N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 21.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 23.2N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-09-21 04:43:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 The tropical cyclone has not intensified this evening, with much of the deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak analyses from both SAB and TAFB. Since the center is expected to move over the south-central Baja California peninsula tonight and move back inland later tomorrow while southwesterly shear is forecast to remain strong, no increase in strength is expected. The influence of land should reduce the cyclone to a remnant low pressure area over Arizona by late Monday, and the surface center should lose its identity shortly thereafter. The center is not easy to locate on geostationary satellite imagery, so the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 010/13. A mid-level ridge to the east of the depression along with a cyclonic circulation to the west should induce a north- northeastward motion through Monday. The track guidance is in general agreement on a slight acceleration through tomorrow morning, and is a little to the right of the previous model runs. The official forecast is shifted slightly to the east of the previous one. This is close to the latest model consensus with a little additional weight given to the reliable ECMWF solution. Moisture associated with the depression is spreading northward, and expected to cause heavy rainfall across portions of the Baja California peninsula, northwestern mainland Mexico, southern California, and Arizona during the next several days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 26.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.7N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.5N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1200Z 34.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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