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ARB posts discussion draft of new proposed mobile-source emissions reduction strategy through 2030; Advanced Clean Cars 2 regulation

2015-10-02 17:55:29| Green Car Congress

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 19

2015-10-02 16:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021453 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 124 kt in the southeastern eyewall, along with an eyewall dropsonde that supports surface winds of 110-115 kt. Based on these data, the intensity remains 115 kt. The latest central pressure indicated by the aircraft data is 939 mb. While the hurricane continues to produce cloud tops of -80C in the eyewall, the eye is ragged and poorly defined in satellite imagery. Joaquin has turned northward during the past few hours and the initial motion is now 360/3. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane, while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the front during the next couple of days. These developments should steer Joaquin northward to northeastward during the next 12 hours or so, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast. The GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are now in better agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward through 48 hours, followed by a more northward turn between 48 and 72 hours. This is then followed by movement into the westerlies and acceleration toward the east- northeast after 72 hours. The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous track after 24 hours, and it lies between the previous track and the model consensus. Some additional eastward adjustments to the track may occur on the next advisory based on the 1200 UTC model runs. Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical wind shear for another 24 hours or so, and during this time some fluctuations in intensity are possible due to eyewall replacement cycles. After 24 hours, the shear is forecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is expected to begin after 96 hours, but the dynamical models suggest it may not be complete before 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas are likely to continue into this evening. 2. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S. east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather Prediction Center and your local forecast office. 3. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for Bermuda this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 23.5N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 26.1N 73.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 28.2N 71.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 30.6N 69.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 35.5N 67.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 39.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 43.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 18

2015-10-02 10:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020842 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 The eye of Joaquin has not been apparent in recent infrared imagery. The last pass of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the center around 04Z showed indications of a double wind maximum at flight level, which could indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. The last report from the aircraft indicated that the central pressure still around 935 mb. The initial intensity remains 115 kt pending the arrival of the next aircraft before 12Z. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 to 24 hours due to eyewall replacement. After that time, gradual weakening is forecast as the cyclone encounters increasing southwesterly shear, but Joaquin is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. Faster weakening in shown late in the period as the cyclone is forecast move over cooler waters and the shear increases further. The initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the northwest, or 315/03, with the hurricane now gaining a bit of latitude based on recent center fixes. The ridge north of Joaquin will weaken in the next 12 to 24 hours as a mid/upper-level low moves in from the east, and the hurricane should begin to move more quickly northward today and then accelerate northeastward tonight and Saturday. The track model guidance is in reasonable agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast during the first 2 days is a little to the right of the previous one, trending toward the latest multi-model consensus. After that time, there have been some changes in the latest models, with the GFS trending west from its previous forecast with a track still offshore but closer to Cape Cod in about 5 days. The ECMWF has also trended westward this cycle away from Bermuda and now lies closer to the middle of the guidance suite. The UKMET is now the eastern-most model, but still shows a track west of Bermuda. The spread in the guidance at these time ranges appears to be due to differences in the strength and speed of the westward movement of the upper-level low passing north of Joaquin in the next 2 to 3 days. The new NHC forecast at days 3 and 4 has been shifted a little to the east of the previous one and now lies near the latest consensus aids. At day 5, all of the guidance shows the cyclone accelerating east-northeastward, and the NHC track reflects this trend. Given the continued variability in the guidance from cycle to cycle, further adjustments will likely be needed to the NHC track at days 3 through 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas today. 2. The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the United States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas is decreasing. However, there is still uncertainty in how close Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for Bermuda later today. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 4. Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products issued by local NWS Forecast Offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 23.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 23.9N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 25.4N 74.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 27.4N 72.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 30.0N 70.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 34.8N 69.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 39.0N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 43.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 16

2015-10-01 22:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012054 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 The earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt in the southwestern eyewall, with a subsequent 114-kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southeastern eyewall. The last central pressure extrapolated from the aircraft data was 936 mb. In addition, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS are now in the 115-127 kt range. Based on these data, the intensity was increased to 115 kt at 1800 UTC, making Joaquin a Category 4 hurricane. While this advisory will not increase the intensity any further, it is expected that the next aircraft arriving in the hurricane near 0000 UTC will find a stronger system. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more during the next 12 hours or so as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. While there remains some uncertainty regarding the intensity in the 48-96 hour range, the new forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for a steady weakening during this period. Overall, the intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope. Joaquin has moved with a more westward component during the past few hours and the initial motion is now 235/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northward in 12-24 hours. The guidance after 48 hours has changed somewhat since the last advisory, with the GFS and the UKMET moving farther to the east and lying closer to the ECMWF. In addition, the HWRF has made a big jump to the east and now shows an offshore track. These changes have pushed the consensus models farther eastward. The Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however - still calling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough and turn northwestward toward the U. S. coast. The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the track are likely. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions will continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well into Friday. 2. A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on a track farther away from the United States east coast. We are becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin. However, we cannot yet completely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and residents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin over the next couple of days. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 4. Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states. Please see products issued by local NWS Forecast Offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 23.0N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 23.2N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 24.4N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 28.4N 73.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 37.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 41.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 15

2015-10-01 17:04:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011504 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a 117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall. The latest central pressure was 942 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity is increased to 110 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus outflow is good in all directions. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken due to increasing shear. However, several of the global models forecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level divergence and show a falling central pressure. The new forecast will continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is 220/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or so and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models, but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today depending on how the models do (or do not) change. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin over the next day or so will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands. 2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours is still low, since there have been some large changes in the model guidance overnight and a large spread in the model solutions remains, with potential impacts from the Carolinas through New England. It is also possible that Joaquin will remain far from the U.S. east coast. A hurricane watch for the U.S. coast would likely not occur until at least Friday morning. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 4. It's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. 5. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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