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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-09-29 22:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 292052 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 The cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized during the day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northern edge of the main area of deep convection. Animation of cirrus motions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little more prominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this is consistent with decreasing northerly shear. Flight-level, dropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened and the intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt. With a more favorable upper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the official forecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories. Joaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, with additional intensification likely thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output. Fixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion and the initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt. Joaquin is currently south of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. The ECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone to be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamical models. Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the west and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available guidance. Later in the forecast period, there is a significant divergence in the track guidance. The HWRF and U.K. Met Office models forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United States later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system well offshore. The official forecast lies between these possibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble solution. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm. Watches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands later this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 25.8N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 25.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.1N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 24.8N 73.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-09-29 22:33:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-29 18:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 291650 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 CORRECTED INTENSITY TO 40 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24 hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of the system, and restricted over the northern part of the circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 40 kt, which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should provide a better estimate of intensity. Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72 hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern, but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas, and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The 00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5 days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track forecast is very low. The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening, which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Burke
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-29 16:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 291445 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24 hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of the system, and restricted over the northern part of the circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt, which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should provide a better estimate of intensity. Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72 hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern, but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas, and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The 00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5 days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track forecast is very low. The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening, which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-29 16:34:13| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
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