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Hurricane MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-28 22:45:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-28 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 281451 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression's overall cloud pattern has become better organized since yesterday despite persistent north- northwesterly shear of about 20 kt. The exposed low-level center is located near the northwestern tip of a curved band over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. However, satellite data indicate that the low- to mid-level centers have recently become more separated. Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Smoothing fixes over the last 12 hours yields an initial motion of 300/04, a little faster than before. The depression is embedded in low- to mid-level southeasterly flow around a ridge to its northeast, with northwesterly flow aloft. This synoptic pattern should only favor a slow northwestward motion for the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the cyclone should reach the western end of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and begin to respond to the southerly and southwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough nearing the U.S. east coast. This change to the steering should result in a gradual northward turn with increasing forward speed. The new track forecast is a little left of the previous one at 48 hours and a little faster, close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF model solutions. GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model output indicates a continuation of moderately strong north-northwesterly shear over the cyclone for the next day or so. Even though other large-scale factors are generally conducive for intensification during this time, shear of this magnitude suggests that only slow intensification is possible. While the shear should decrease some by 36 hours, other environmental factors are not forecast to be as conducive and little further strengthening is indicated. Large-scale models depict the cyclone merging with a frontal zone offshore of the Mid-Atlantic or New England coasts by 96 hours, and the system is therefore shown to be post-tropical at that time. An alternate lower probability scenario is that the cyclone could race ahead of the frontal boundary and retain its tropical characteristics for a bit longer. The new intensity forecast is above the previous one through 24 hours and near the multi-model consensus but below the statistical-dynamical guidance after that time due to more reliance on the global models which show little further intensification. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 27.8N 69.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 28.1N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.5N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 29.1N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.6N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 32.0N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 37.7N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-09-28 16:47:13| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-28 10:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280852 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 Shortwave and enhanced BD-Curve infrared imagery show little change in the depression's cloud pattern this morning. Recently, however, a few bursts of deep convection are beginning to develop near the surface center. Subjective intensity estimates remain unchanged from the previous advisory as does the initial intensity of 30 kt. UW-CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model both indicate 10-20 kt of northwesterly shear generated by a high amplitude upper-level ridge extending northward over the western Atlantic from the western Caribbean. Large-scale models show this upper-wind pattern persisting through day 3, which should inhibit any significant strengthening. Afterward, increasing southwesterly shear is expected to spread over the eastern seaboard and extreme western Atlantic waters in response to a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Despite a rather harsh forecast upper-wind environment, the IVCN intensity consensus model shows slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours. Beyond the 96 hour period, the global models indicate either dissipation or the cyclone quickly becoming absorbed by the aforementioned baroclinic system. The official forecast is based on the IVCN consensus and indicates the cyclone merging with the frontal system in 5 days. The depression's center has been a bit difficult to find this morning, and has been moving erratically, drifting westward, or 275/2 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest later today and continue in this general direction for a couple of days due to high pressure extending over the western Atlantic. After that time, a northward turn is forecast with an increase in forward speed around day 3 in response to the above mentioned frontal system approaching the east coast of the U.S. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the left of the previous forecast and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 27.4N 68.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 27.6N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 28.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 28.5N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 29.2N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 31.2N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 36.2N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm MARTY Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-28 10:48:35| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
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