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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-09 10:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090847 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the last several hours. The system remains sheared with the low-level center located to the west of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt based on the steady state nature of the system since the earlier scatterometer data. The current shear of about 20 kt from the west-southwest is expected to continue through the day, therefore, only slow strengthening is expected during that time. The shear is anticipated to lessen in 24-48 hours, which could provide a better opportunity for strengthening before the cyclone crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in 2-3 days. The cyclone is expected to lose tropical characteristics by 72 hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance. The depression has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory. A northward motion is expected to begin later today and then increase in forward speed during the next couple of days as a deep layer trough moves eastward toward the system. The cyclone is forecast to become embedded in strong mid-latitude flow in a few days, causing it to accelerate and turn northeastward and then eastward. Only small changes were made to the previous track forecast, and it lies near the consensus aids. The latter part of the track forecast excludes the GFS, which dissipates the system before it becomes extratropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.3N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 32.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 34.7N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 37.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 44.5N 56.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z 48.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 48.0N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-09-09 10:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090839 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate overnight, with the eye becoming much less distinct and the surrounding cloud tops have warmed. The latest microwave imagery also shows that the northeastern portion of the eye has eroded. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 85 kt, which is based on a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Linda will be moving over SSTs below 26C and into a drier and more stable air mass today. This should result in rapid weakening and Linda is forecast to become a tropical storm within 24 hours, and weaken to a remnant low in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus. Linda is moving northwestward or 325/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward speed over the next couple of days. After that time, the more shallow cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, and then westward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula. The official track forecast lies between the GFS, which takes a stronger Linda more northward, and the ECMWF model that moves a weaker Linda more westward. Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to spread northward into southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.2N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.2N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 26.3N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 26.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 27.5N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 27.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-09-09 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090837 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 Grace is only producing a couple of small patches of disorganized convection this morning. An ASCAT-B overpass from several hours ago showed that the circulation has become elongated from east to west, and is less defined than it was yesterday. The scatterometer data also showed that the maximum winds are around 25 kt, and NOAA buoy 41041 has observed similar winds. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 25 kt, which is also close to the latest satellite intensity estimates. The depression continues to battle west-southwesterly shear of about 20 kt and a fairly stable air mass. These conditions are expected to become even more hostile, which should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low or become a trough within the next day or two before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. This scenario is supported by nearly all of the models. The center of Grace appears to be located a little to the south of the previous track, and the initial motion estimate is due westward, or 270 degrees, at 15 kt. Grace, or its remnant, is expected to continue moving westward at about the same speed until it dissipates in a few days or less. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one, based mainly on the more southward initial position, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.3N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 14.9N 53.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.4N 56.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 15.9N 60.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-09 06:26:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090425 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the low pressure area east-southeast of Bermuda has developed a well-defined circulation with winds of at least 30 kt in the northeastern quadrant. In addition, a strong cluster of convection has been persisting in the eastern quadrant. Based on these developments, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. It should be noted that the system has a large radius of maximum winds more characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. However, data from the FSU phase space analysis and the strong convection suggest the system is more tropical than subtropical. The cyclone is currently nearly stationary. A northward motion should begin on Wednesday as a deep layer trough moves into the eastern United States and weakens the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is expected to enter the westerlies and turn toward the northeast after 48 hours, with this motion continuing until dissipation. The forecast track lies in the center of the track guidance envelope in good agreement with the various consensus models. An upper-level trough just west of the cyclone is currently providing upper-level difluence, and this is likely enhancing the convection. The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to become embedded in about 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of the trough. While there is dry air entraining into the cyclone, the environment should allow for some slow strengthening through 72 hours while the system remains over warm water. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for strengthening in best agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal system and lose its identity by 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0430Z 30.8N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 30.8N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 31.6N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 33.4N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 36.0N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 43.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 48.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-09-09 04:37:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090237 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 Grace continues to produce disorganized bursts of convection near and south of the low-level center, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass shows that the cyclone still has a closed circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, although the scatterometer data suggests this could be a little generous. The cyclone is likely to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next day or two. However, it is moving through an environment of dry mid-level air and westerly vertical shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt by 72 hours - a combination that should cause further weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, calling for Grace to become a remnant low in about 36 hours and to dissipate completely after 72 hours. There is a possibility, supported by most of the global models, that Grace could degenerate into an open wave before 72 hours. The initial motion remains 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to steer Grace or its remnants quickly westward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is again an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 16.3N 58.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 17.0N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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