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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 17

2015-09-10 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100241 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda's weakening trend continues. Most of the convection with cloud tops of -45 to -55 deg C has now been displaced primarily into the northern quadrant deep due to moderate southerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a consensus Dvorak CI-number of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. The NHC model guidance remains in fairy good agreement on Linda moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west after that as the cyclone weakens into a shallow remnant low and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope near the consensus model, TCVE. A comparison of low-level positions from microwave imagery with the visible and infrared location of the upper-level circulation clearly indicates that the surface and upper-level circulations continue to decouple. Linda is currently crossing the 24 deg C SST isotherm and is headed for 23 C water, so additional weakening is forecast as convection continues to wane due to rapidly worsening thermodynamic conditions. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression within the next 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach southern California on Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 25.0N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 25.8N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 26.6N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 27.1N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 27.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z 27.4N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 26.8N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 16

2015-09-09 22:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092044 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Linda continues to weaken, with the remaining deep convection becoming displaced from the low-level center due to southerly shear. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening is forecast due to cool waters and a dry, stable air mass along the track of Linda. Linda is forecast to weaken to a depression by 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 325/09, and microwave imagery suggests that the surface center of Linda is a little behind previous estimates as it begins to separate from the convection. Linda is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 24 to 36 hours. Then the remnant low of Linda should gradually turn westward and then southward in the low-level flow before dissipating in about 5 days. The new NHC track is along the previous one, but is a bit slower given the initial position and motion through 48 hours. After that time, a slower motion and faster southward turn is shown before dissipation, in agreement with the latest trends in the track guidance. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.4N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 26.4N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 27.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 27.3N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 27.6N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 27.0N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-09-09 22:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092042 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015 The depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized so far today, and the low-level center is exposed a short distance to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection. The deep convection itself is not well organized, with scant evidence of banding features. Final data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support keeping the intensity at 30 kt. The vertical wind shear over the system, which is currently near 20 kt from the southwest, is predicted by the global models to relax somewhat over the next 24 to 48 hours. This would allow for some strengthening, as indicated in the official forecast. By 72 hours, the cyclone should be located over cold waters and the global models depict it as embedded within a baroclinic zone. Therefore the system is forecast to be extratropical around that time. The depression is still drifting east-southeastward or 115/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, a mid-level ridge is predicted to build to the east and northeast of the cyclone while a trough drops into the eastern United States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the cyclone to move northward at an increasing forward speed into Friday. Afterwards, the flow ahead of the trough should cause the system to turn eastward at an even faster forward speed within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 30.6N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.9N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 33.9N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 36.9N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 40.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 47.0N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 48.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 48.0N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 15

2015-09-09 16:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091438 TCDEP5 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015 Deep convection continues to diminish in association with Linda, with only a small area of cold cloud tops near and west of the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further rapid weakening is expected as Linda moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry, stable air mass. Linda should become a remnant low by 48 hours, or even a bit sooner. The initial motion estimate is 325/11. Linda should continue moving northwestward for the next 36 hours and then turn gradually more westward as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the low-level flow. By the end of the period, a motion toward the southwest or south-southwest is possible. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one but has been adjusted a bit to the right and faster to account for the initial position and motion and the latest trends in the guidance. The NHC forecast is generally close to or a little to the right of the ECMWF through much of the forecast period. Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to reach the Pacific coast of the northern Baja California peninsula today and reach southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.2N 116.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 26.3N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 27.4N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 28.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 28.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 27.5N 124.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-09-09 16:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091437 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 The depression remains sheared, with the low-level center located just to the west of the western edge of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB. The vertical shear over the depression, which is currently near 20 kt, is forecast to diminish in 24 to 48 hours. Therefore strengthening seems likely until the cyclone passes north of the Gulf Stream. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures near 17 deg C, so it should be extratropical by that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS guidance. The depression has been meandering this morning and the current motion estimate is an east-southeastward drift, or 120/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, a mid-level high is forecast to build to the east and northeast of the tropical cyclone while a shortwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should result in a northward motion at an increasing forward speed beginning within 12 hours. After 48 hours, the system should turn to the right and move within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is east of the previous one, but in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. An alternative scenario, shown by the GFS, is for the system to become absorbed by an extratropical cyclone centered near New England in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 30.7N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 31.4N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 33.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 35.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 38.8N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 48.0N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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