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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 23

2016-10-09 22:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 092040 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 ...NICOLE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 65.3W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 65.3 West. Nicole is nearly stationary. A slow northward motion should commence soon, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole and Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 23

2016-10-09 22:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 092040 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 65.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 160SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 65.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.0N 65.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 170SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.9N 65.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 180SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.6N 65.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N 65.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.4N 66.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 190SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.4N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

2016-10-09 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 092040 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 32(48) 17(65) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 10(29) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 22

2016-10-09 17:03:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 091503 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 Overnight microwave data indicated that Nicole had formed a well-defined low- to mid-level eye, embedded within a significant convective burst. Since then, the shear has caused the new convective growth to diminish and pushed the coldest cloud tops south of the low-level center. Satellite classifications are T3.0 and T3.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A blend of these is used to set the initial intensity estimate to 50 kt. Nicole appears to have drifted southeastward during the last several hours, but is now essentially stationary. The blocking ridge north of Nicole has begun to shift eastward, which should cause the cyclone to begin a slow motion, generally toward the north. Variations in the orientation and strength of this ridge in the GFS and ECMWF solutions result in either a north-northeastward or north-northwestward motion, respectively, during the next couple of days, and these differences could have implications on Nicole's track longer term. A turn toward the northeast is expected late in the period when Nicole reaches the mid-latitude westerly flow. The split in the track guidance over the forecast period is notable this cycle, with the ECMWF and all but a few of its 0000 UTC ensemble members even or left of the previous forecast track. All of the other track guidance is to the east, including the GFS which is the rightmost of the members in this camp. The new forecast track is very near the previous one in deference to the ECMWF and its ensemble output even though the model consensus aids are to the east through 96 hours. The strong northerly shear over Nicole has marginally decreased since yesterday, but is forecast to remain at about the same magnitude for another 24 hours. The shear should then gradually diminish until about day 3, and Nicole is likely to find itself in the lowest-shear environment it has seen in several days. Since the cyclone will be over anomalously warm waters at that time, in a moist environment and under a somewhat diffluent flow aloft, intensification seems likely. The intensity forecast is increased over the previous one and is slightly above the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that the global models show significant deepening of Nicole starting around this time, potentially much more than what is indicated in this forecast. Southwesterly shear should greatly increase by day 4, which could curb any additional intensification after that time unless the cyclone's intensification is being driven by baroclinic forcing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.0N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 26.1N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 27.0N 65.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 28.6N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 31.8N 64.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 34.9N 59.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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