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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 24
2016-10-10 04:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 100242 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 ...NICOLE NOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 65.3W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 65.3 West. Nicole is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Monday, and a turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely tonight. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin on Monday, and Nicole could become a hurricane by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole and Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 24
2016-10-10 04:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 100242 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 160SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.1N 65.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 160SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 170SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.6N 65.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 180SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.1N 66.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 190SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 37.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-09 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 20:41:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 20:41:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2016-10-09 22:40:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 092040 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern has become better organized this afternoon. Deep convection has been pulsing but, unlike yesterday, it has not diminished. The cyclone's maintenance of deep convection suggests that the vertical shear has decreased, which is supported by the SHIPS analyses. In addition, the low-level center is underneath but on the northwestern side of a formative and expanding central dense overcast, consisting of cold cloud tops. Dvorak classifications are T3.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity estimate is therefore raised to 55 kt. Nicole has been nearly stationary during the last several hours. A slow motion generally toward the north or north-northwest is expected to commence soon, now that the blocking high north of it has slid to the northeast of Nicole. A shortwave trough currently over the northeastern United States is shown in global model solutions bypassing Nicole in about 2 days. The ECMWF has stronger ridging in the wake of this feature than the GFS, and thus carries Nicole farther to the west as did the 0000 UTC ECMWF ensembles. A turn toward the north and northeast is likely after 72 hours once Nicole reaches a belt of stronger mid-latitude southwesterly flow. The new track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is slower, and it is shifted again toward the ECMWF. The NHC track is close to an average of the ECMWF and GFS models and to the west of the other model consensus aids. Northerly vertical shear of 20 to 25 kt over Nicole will continue for about another 24 hours, which should prevent significant intensification from occurring. After that time, the shear is forecast to gradually diminish and remain relatively low until about 3 days. The reduction of shear, in combination with near-record warm SSTs, a relatively moist environment, and an increasingly diffluent flow aloft, suggest that intensification is likely. The only caveat involves much a cooler and drier air mass in the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew would affect Nicole. The new intensity forecast is increased again, much more than in the previous advisory, and is near the high end of the guidance in closest agreement with the SHIPS model. It is worth mentioning that global models continue to show significant deepening in 2 to 3 days, still more than indicated in the current forecast. The guidance shows a sharp increase in shear by 96 hours, which ordinarily would curb any further intensification. However, baroclinic forcing could offset the negative effects of the shear and Nicole should at a minimum maintain its intensity if not intensify a bit further. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.2N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 25.0N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 26.6N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 27.2N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 28.4N 66.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 35.4N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-09 22:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 9 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.2, -65.3 with movement Nearly stationary. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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