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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-09 01:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 6:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Olaf was located near 19.7, -107.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-09-09 01:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082334 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...OLAF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 107.7W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 107.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Baja California Sur Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 01:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 23:34:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 21:34:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-08 22:49:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 20:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 21:34:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-08 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Olaf's appearance has remained steady today and the storm is characterized by a large curved band that encompasses much of the circulation. There is good outflow in all quadrants, indicative of a low-shear environment. An earlier ASCAT pass sampled peak winds of 37 kt, and this data along with a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial intensity is around 40 kt. The storm is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely during that time period. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters, and into a drier and a much more stable atmospheric environment. This should result in rapid weakening, and Olaf is expected to become a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and continues to be in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although the NHC forecast does not explicitly show Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night. Olaf continues to move slowly northwestward, or 325/5 kt. A mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico should help maintain this heading for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast when the shallow cyclone is steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The overall model guidance shifted slightly to the east through 48 hours, and thus the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction for that time frame. Because of this track shift, probabilities of tropical storm and hurricane conditions have increased for southern portions of Baja California Sur. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of this area. After 48 h, the guidance has shifted a little to the south, and the NHC forecast was tweaked in that direction as well. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 19.4N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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