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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-09-09 10:55:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090855 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Olaf's convective canopy has been expanding somewhat and become a little more circular since last evening with clouds tops as cold as -80 degrees Celsius. Dvorak estimates have bounced up to T3.5 from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, and Olaf's maximum winds are therefore now estimated to be 55 kt. Recent scatterometer data also indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind field is a little bigger than previously estimated. Also with the help of the scatterometer data, Olaf's center appears to have tracked a bit to the east, and the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. This has been the recent trend over the past day or so, with the motion having a more northward component than anticipated--but not surprising given what previous GFS model runs have been suggesting. A strong mid-level high over the western United States is expected to eventually force Olaf toward the northwest and then west, but probably not soon enough to avoid impacts on the southern Baja California peninsula. Mostly due to the adjusted initial position, the track models--and the NHC official forecast--have again shifted closer to the southern tip of the peninsula, with a closest approach in about 24 hours. This updated forecast is very close to the HCCA consensus aid and would be close enough for the core of the storm to at least graze land. It's also concerning that the GFS, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models are still to the right of the official forecast and the other models and show Olaf's center potentially moving over the southern tip of the peninsula in about 24 hours. Olaf should finally begin to move westward away from the peninsula in about 48 hours. Although satellite images and model analyses suggest that some moderate westerly shear is undercutting the outflow layer, Olaf has been able to strengthen nonetheless. If Olaf's center does not move over the Baja California peninsula, the storm will have the opportunity to strengthen for another 24-36 hours while ocean waters are warm and deep-layer shear is low. Therefore, the new NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope and shows Olaf becoming a hurricane later today. Further strengthening beyond what's shown in the official forecast is possible, with rapid intensification indices now close to a 50 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours. By 48 hours, colder waters should cause Olaf's convection to decrease, and global models suggest it could degenerate to a convection-less post-tropical low by day 3. The updated track and intensity forecasts have necessitated the issuance of a Hurricane Warning by the government of Mexico for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and an extension of Tropical Storm Warnings northward along both east and west coasts of the peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane later today and then pass very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, and preparations should therefore be rushed to completion this morning. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 20.5N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 10:55:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:55:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:55:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 20.5, -108.0 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 7
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 192 WTPZ35 KNHC 090853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 108.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro and north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja California Sur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore wind. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 181 FOPZ15 KNHC 090853 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 8 84(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 46(46) 13(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 8 81(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 34(34) 9(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 1 13(14) 26(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 12 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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