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Hurricane Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-09-09 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 091450 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 74 25(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 14 67(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 3 43(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 34 74 24(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAN JOSE CABO 50 12 62(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) SAN JOSE CABO 64 2 31(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LA PAZ 34 2 49(51) 7(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) LA PAZ 50 X 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LA PAZ 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-09-09 16:50:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091450 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 108.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 13:54:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 11:54:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 09:34:09 GMT
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olaf
Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-09 13:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... As of 6:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 20.8, -108.1 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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olaf
Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-09-09 13:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091148 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 108.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja California Sur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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