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Post-Tropical Cyclone KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 57

2014-08-27 04:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 270232 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.7N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 126.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression KARINA Graphics

2014-08-26 23:15:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 20:50:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 21:06:32 GMT

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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 56

2014-08-26 22:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262050 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 After a brief convection hiatus, a small band of thunderstorms has redeveloped in the southwestern quadrant. As a result, tropical depression status and a 25-kt intensity are being maintained for this advisory. Although the easterly shear induced by the large upper-level outflow pattern of Hurricane Marie located well to the northeast of Karina should act to suppress the development of any persistent deep convection after 12 hours, the cyclone could still produce intermittent convective bursts until the system opens up into a trough by Thursday. The initial motion estimate is south-southeastward or 150/04 kt based on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite fixes. The small circulation of Karina is expected to be advected southeastward and eastward within the southern semicircle of Hurricane Marie over the next 24-36 hours as the the latter cyclone continues to lift out to the northwest. The only change to the previous advisory track has been the addition of points at 24 and 36 hours due to some of the models still depicting Karina as a small but closed remnant low at those times periods. Karina is now the seventh-longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the eastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.2N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 16.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 16.7N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Depression KARINA (EP1/EP112014)

2014-08-26 22:49:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of KARINA was located near 16.2, -127.2 with movement SSE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression KARINA Public Advisory Number 56

2014-08-26 22:49:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 262049 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...KARINA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 127.2W ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND THE EAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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