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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 51
2014-08-25 16:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 251434 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 128.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 128.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 128.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-25 10:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 08:33:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 08:32:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 50
2014-08-25 10:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250832 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 A small area of convection has developed just to the southwest of the center, probably a product of the diurnal maximum cycle. However, the deep convection that was earlier displaced well to the west-northwest has dissipated. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease and a blend of the T- and CI-numbers suggest an initial intensity of 35 kt. Moderate east-southeasterly vertical shear produced by Marie's large upper-level anticyclone to the east, is expected to further weaken Karina. Consequently, the cyclone should continue to spin down and become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours. The intensity forecast corresponds with the large-scale models and the SHIPS/LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance with dissipation or absorption forecast in 2-3 days. Shortwave-infrared satellite images show that the best estimate of initial motion is 110/9, and this general motion around the western to southwestern periphery of Marie is expected through the entire period before dissipation. The official NHC forecast track is an update of the previous package and is based on a compromise of the GFEX and TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.2N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.1N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-25 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of KARINA was located near 17.2, -128.4 with movement ESE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 50
2014-08-25 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 250832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...KARINA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 128.4W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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