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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 52
2014-08-25 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing Karina, though a persistent small area of deep convection continues in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. A direct hit from the ASCAT-B scatterometer at 1742Z indicates peak winds of about 30 kt, which is the initial intensity of Karina. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear and dry air should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about 36 hours. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and is the same as that from the previous advisory. The visible imagery and the ASCAT-B pass indicate that Karina is moving toward the east at 5 kt. This motion is somewhat unexpected as all of the guidance suggested an east-southeast to southeast heading today. The cyclone will be advected around the large circulation of Marie until Karina is absorbed. The track forecast, based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the previous advisory, is north of the previous official prediction because of the more poleward initial position than expected earlier. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.2N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-25 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of KARINA was located near 17.2, -127.6 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression KARINA Public Advisory Number 52
2014-08-25 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 252036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...KARINA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 127.6W ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. KARINA SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52
2014-08-25 22:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 252036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 52
2014-08-25 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 252035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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