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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-25 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 the center of KARINA was located near 17.5, -129.3 with movement E at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 49
2014-08-25 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 250232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 ...KARINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 129.3W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. KARINA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON MONDAY AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 49
2014-08-25 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 250231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 129.3W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 129.3W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.2N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.9N 125.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 129.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-24 23:15:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 20:54:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 21:06:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 48
2014-08-24 22:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 242052 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014 Strong vertical shear being induced by an upper-level high centered northeast of Karina continues to weaken the tropical storm. Deep convection continues in association with the cyclone, though it is occurring only over the western semi-circle and it has decreased in areal extent. In fact, in the last few visible images, the low-level center is popping out from underneath the thinning cirrus overcast. A "bulls-eye" ASCAT-B hit at 1802Z indicated a peak surface wind between 40 and 45 kt, so the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. Strong vertical shear should continue to afflict Karina, as the outflow from major hurricane Marie will soon begin to reach the tropical storm. The combination of high vertical shear, marginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to a gradual weakening of the tropical cyclone. Karina should become a remnant low in about two days. However, the strong shear and mediocre thermodynamics may lead to remnant low status earlier. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models, and is a bit lower than that from the previous advisory due to the weakened initial condition of the cyclone. The aforementioned ASCAT-B pass confirmed the rather small tropical-storm-force wind radii of Karina. A gradual reduction in the cyclone's size is anticipated as the cyclone winds down. Karina is being steered eastward at 8 kt around the large circulation of post-tropical cyclone Lowell to its north-northeast. The center of the system is now well known, due to the ASCAT-B pass and the visible appearance of the low-level center. The steering influence of Lowell will diminish by tomorrow as the distance between the systems increases, and Karina should respond by slowing down and turning gradually to the east-southeast. In about 36 hours, Karina's track will mainly be influenced by the approaching large and powerful Marie. Karina or its remnant low should be accelerated toward the east until it becomes absorbed within Marie between two and three days. The forecast track is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus technique and is slightly faster than that issued in the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.8N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.7N 129.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.2N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 16.5N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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