je.st
news
Tag: karina
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 24
2014-08-18 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 182032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 30SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 132.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 134.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 135.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.1N 136.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 136.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-18 17:09:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Aug 2014 14:42:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Aug 2014 15:04:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-08-18 16:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181441 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Karina has not changed much during the past 2 or 3 days, and still consists of an area of deep convection with the center on the northern edge due to shear. This was confirmed by an AMSU pass earlier today. Given that the cloud pattern has not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. Karina has the chance to slightly strengthen since the circulation is moving over warmer waters and into weaker shear. By the end of the forecast period, the outflow from larger Tropical Depression 12-E to the northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent additional strengthening. Best estimate of the initial motion is 255 degrees at 8 kt. Karina is trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge, and this pattern will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west or to the west for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this portion of the forecast is high with good guidance agreement. After that time, Karina's motion will be dominated by the larger-than- normal TD 12-E, which is forecast to pass to the northeast. This should result in a collapse of the steering flow near Karina and very little motion of the cyclone. By the end of the period Karina should begin to turn slowly to the northeast steered by the southwesterly flow on the south side of TD 12-E. This later portion of the forecast is much less certain due to the large guidance spread. On the other hand, all dynamical models agree on the turn to the northeast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 16.8N 132.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2014-08-18 16:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-18 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA SHOWS NO CHANGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 18 the center of KARINA was located near 16.8, -132.4 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Sites : [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] next »