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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 31
2014-08-20 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 201434 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 136.6W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 136.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-20 11:09:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 08:42:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 09:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 30
2014-08-20 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200841 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 Although Karina's low-level center is embedded beneath the cold cirrus canopy, microwave imagery indicates that it is located on the northeastern edge of the deep convection. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have not changed from six hours ago, and a 0602 UTC ASCAT pass confirmed that maximum winds are about 45 kt. Moderate east-northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue affecting Karina during the next several days, and thermodynamic conditions will gradually become less favorable once the cyclone begins gaining some latitude beyond day 3. The official NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous forecast, holding Karina steady at 45 kt for the next 48 hours and then showing weakening to a remnant low by day 5 over significantly colder water. This scenario is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM models, as well as the ICON intensity consensus. Karina continues to move slowly westward with an initial motion of 270/4 kt. All of the track models now indicate that Karina will slow down and turn southward, making a small counterclockwise loop during the next 48 hours as it comes under the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's larger circulation. Karina will then backtrack on its past track, accelerating northeastward and northward between days 3 and 5 while it swings around the south and east sides of Lowell. As mentioned in the previous forecast, the track guidance had been shifting eastward in recent cycles, and that trend has continued. Therefore, the NHC track forecast is again pushed eastward, although it still lies along the left side of the guidance envelope near the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-20 10:41:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA STILL MOVING WESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MEANDERING LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 20 the center of KARINA was located near 15.9, -135.9 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 30
2014-08-20 10:41:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200841 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 ...KARINA STILL MOVING WESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MEANDERING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 135.9W ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1760 MI...2830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN MEANDERING LATER TODAY BEFORE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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