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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 23
2014-08-18 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 ...KARINA SHOWS NO CHANGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 132.4W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.4 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A SLOWER WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 23
2014-08-18 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 132.4W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 132.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 132.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 22
2014-08-18 10:56:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180856 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 131.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 131.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 131.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-08-18 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180850 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 Deep convection associated with Karina has been pulsing during the last several hours and it remains displaced to the southwest of the low-level center due to persistent shear. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, but this could be a little generous based on the latest Dvorak classifications. The shear is expected to slacken some during the next day or two, which could allow the storm to restrengthen a little. However, significant strengthening seems unlikely since Karina could be affected by some dry air to its west while it remains over marginal sea surface temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the consensus model IVCN. Karina is moving west-southwestward at about 10 kt, and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted during the next 24 hours. The storm is likely to drift westward or become stationary by the middle to late portion of the week when the steering currents collapse. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to get pulled northeastward when it begins to interact with the large depression to its east. The new official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.1N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2014-08-18 10:47:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180847 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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