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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-20 17:09:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 14:40:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 15:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 31
2014-08-20 16:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 Karina's cloud pattern has become a little better organized with the center embedded within the deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T3.5 on the Dvorak scale at 1200 UTC. Since that time, deep convection has decreased a little, and the initial intensity is set at 50 kt instead of the 55 kt supported by the Dvorak numbers. As long as Karina remains over warm waters and moderate shear, there will be small fluctuations in intensity. Once the cyclone moves away from the deep tropics in 3 days or so, it will encounter cooler waters and it will begin to weaken. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus model, which keeps Karina at 50 kt for at least 3 more days. As anticipated, Karina has moved very little and most likely will meander or remain nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. As soon as Karina begins to feel the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's larger circulation in 36 hours or so, it will begin to drift eastward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed around the south and east sides of Lowell. Guidance has not changed significantly, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.8N 136.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2014-08-20 16:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 201434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-20 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 20 the center of KARINA was located near 15.8, -136.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 31
2014-08-20 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 201434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014 ...KARINA FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE FOR A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 136.6W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. KARINA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN EASTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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