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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 21
2014-08-18 04:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.4W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 134.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-17 23:07:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2014 20:41:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2014 21:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-08-17 22:44:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172044 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014 Karina's convective pattern has continued to wax and wane over the past 6 hours. Another burst of deep convection with cloud tops to -80C has developed near and to the west through southwest of the partially exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center. Recent objective intensity analyses from CIMSS AMSU and ADT yield estimates of 42-44 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass at 1847 UTC indicated several 36-37 kt surface wind vectors northwest and west of the center. Based on a blend of these values, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Karina appears to have made the much expected turn toward the west-southwest, and the initial motion is now 255/11 kt. Karina is expected to continue moving toward the west-southwest and slow down considerably over the next 72 hours as a broad high pressure system builds to the north and west of the cyclone. Karina could even stall on Day 3 as steering currents collapse. After that, a large developing disturbance located about 700 n mi east of the cyclone is forecast by all of the global models to evolve into an unusually large low pressure system that will gradually pull Karina back to the east-northeast and northeast on Days 4 and 5. The official forecast track has been shifted farther west, but not as far west as the consensus model TVCE due to the uncertainly involved in exactly how much influence and timing that the large disturbance east of Karina will have on the tropical cyclone. Moderate easterly mid- to upper-level shear is expected to affect Karina for the next 18 hours or so, which should inhibit any significant intensification. After that, however, the shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to decrease to less than 10 kt, during which time some intensification could occur while the cyclone remains over marginal SSTS of at least 26C. By 48 hours and beyond, the easterly shear is expected to increase again due to strong upper-level outflow associated with the aforementioned large disturbance to the east of Karina. The increasing shear, coupled with decreasing SSTs, should cap any intensification that might have occurred. The GFDL and HWRF models bring Karina back to hurricane strength at around 120 hours, but this seems unlikely due to the cyclone being over sub-26C SSTs at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and TO the ICON intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.7N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.3N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.3N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.3N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 16.4N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 16.7N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 17.1N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-17 22:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 the center of KARINA was located near 17.7, -129.5 with movement WSW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 20
2014-08-17 22:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014 ...KARINA TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 129.5W ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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