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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-09 16:44:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 14:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 14:44:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-09 16:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 214 WTNT43 KNHC 091442 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 Helene continues to exhibit a fairly well-organized cloud pattern, but does not yet have a well-defined inner core. The current intensity estimate, 55 kt, is based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates and is also close to the latest SATCON value. The tropical cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters with low to moderate vertical wind shear for the next couple of days. Therefore, strengthening is likely through the early part of this week. Later in the period, marginal SSTs and increasing south-southwesterly shear should induce weakening. The official wind speed forecast is on the high side of the numerical intensity guidance. Helene continues to move westward, or about 270/11 kt. The system should move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic over the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, a mid-level trough is expected to create a pronounced weakness in the ridge along 40W-45W longitude. This steering pattern is likely to cause Helene to turn northwestward to north-northwestward during the latter part of the forecast period. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and lies roughly in the middle of the numerical guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 13.2N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 13.7N 27.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 14.3N 30.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.9N 32.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 15.7N 35.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 17.8N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.0N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 26.0N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-09 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Helene was located near 13.2, -25.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 9
2018-09-09 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 670 WTNT33 KNHC 091441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 25.0W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 25.0 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands today. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through today, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-09-09 16:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 613 FONT13 KNHC 091441 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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