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Hurricane Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-09-09 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 972 FONT13 KNHC 092032 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-09-09 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 879 WTNT23 KNHC 092031 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 26.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 26.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 25.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.9N 28.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 30.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.2N 33.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N 38.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N 40.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 26.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-09 19:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 17:33:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 15:28:27 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-09 19:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Helene was located near 13.3, -25.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 9A
2018-09-09 19:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 840 WTNT33 KNHC 091732 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 200 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...HELENE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 25.5W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cabo Verde islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 25.5 West. Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands today. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southern Cabo Verde Islands through today, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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