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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen-E (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-12 16:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 15.9, -111.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-09-12 16:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 121451 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 111.1W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is expected to continue to move to the west or west-northwest at a slower speed over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, with the system expected to become a hurricane this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-09-12 16:51:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 121450 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2018-08-07 06:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 04:37:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 04:37:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-07 06:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018 282 WTPZ43 KNHC 070436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018 Microwave data from this evening indicate that a small low pressure area has formed within an area of disturbed weather (Invest 94E) that we have been monitoring for several days. The data indicate that the well-defined low is embedded within a growing ball of convection, along with tight banding near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with a special 0400 UTC classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days until the system passes over cooler waters. Most of the guidance is indicating only slow intensification due to northeasterly shear, although some caution should be advised since the depression is fairly small. An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 270/9 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer the system westward for the next day or two, then the forecast gets tricky. The GFS-based guidance is showing Hurricane John weakening the ridge enough to cause a northward or north-northeastward turn of the new tropical cyclone by Thursday, while the ECMWF and its ensemble show the system avoiding any binary interaction with John, and continuing west-northwestward. With such widely divergent guidance, the first forecast will stay close to the consensus, and perhaps later guidance can nail down the specifics of any poleward turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0500Z 14.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.4N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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