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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2016-08-24 22:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242035 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, now has a well-defined center and enough convective organization to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. The environment appears favorable for steady intensification during the first 3 days, as the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs above 28C but the shear remains 10 kt or higher much of that time. Ocean temperatures cool a little at days 4 and 5 and the mid-level atmosphere dries out a bit, which could result in some slow weakening. The NHC forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/12. The cyclone will be steered generally west-northwestward for the next 48 hours with a decrease in forward speed along the southwestern side of a weakening mid-level ridge. Later in the period, a westward acceleration is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the tropical cyclone. In general the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is some cross-track spread, with the HWRF and ECMWF to the south and the COAMPS-TC and especially the GFDL farther north. The NHC forecast lies south of the TVCN multi-model consensus and in between the GFS and the latest GFS/ECMWF blend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.2N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.9N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.1N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Graphics

2016-08-24 22:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 20:32:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 20:31:35 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E (EP3/EP132016)

2016-08-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 the center of THIRTEEN-E was located near 15.2, -109.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2016-08-24 22:31:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242030 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 109.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 109.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.9N 111.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.5N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 114.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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