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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2015-08-27 04:49:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270248 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E (EP3/EP132015)

2015-08-27 04:48:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 the center of THIRTEEN-E was located near 11.7, -114.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 2

2015-08-27 04:48:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270248 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 900 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 114.8W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 114.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the west with some decrease in forward speed is expected tomorrow through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and a hurricane on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2015-08-27 04:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270244 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 114.8W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 114.8W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.1N 116.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.5N 119.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.7N 121.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 131.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 15.5N 134.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 114.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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