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Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-08-28 17:07:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 281506 CCA PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 CORRECTED TO UPDATE DAY 5 INTENSITY FORECAST. AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 30(45) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 38(55) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 33(44) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 38(55) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 38(77) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 32(46) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 38(64) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 33(76) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 29(44) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 27(65) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 23(54) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 18(34) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 52(59) 15(74) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 14(44) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 5(47) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 6(28) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 2(21) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 8(36) 1(37) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 14 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JUAN PR 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) VIEQUES PR 50 67 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) VIEQUES PR 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SAINT THOMAS 64 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) SAINT CROIX 50 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT CROIX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-28 17:06:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 15:06:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 15:06:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-08-28 17:04:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281503 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019 CORRECTED DAY 5 INTENSITY FORECAST TO 100 KT. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 64.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 64.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-28 16:59:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 17.5, -64.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 17
2019-08-28 16:59:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281459 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 64.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian should move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and then continue over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane later today and continue strengthening during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center. An Air Force plane just estimated a minimum central pressure of 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely to occur. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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