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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-08-29 04:39:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290239 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29 deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model output. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt. Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-29 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DORIAN STRENGTHENING... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 19.7, -66.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 19
2019-08-29 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DORIAN STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 66.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 66.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: The central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The northern Bahamas and Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-08-29 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290239 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 66.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 66.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 66.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 18A
2019-08-29 02:05:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290005 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Corrected NNW to NNE of San Juan in summary section ...DORIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 65.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands. The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Central and northwestern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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