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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-08-28 19:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Aug 28 the center of Dorian was located near 18.3, -65.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Graphics
2019-08-28 19:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 17:44:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 15:24:49 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 17A
2019-08-28 19:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281744 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 ...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 65.0W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM W OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center. An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph (178 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
2019-08-28 17:14:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 15:14:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2019 15:24:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-08-28 17:11:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281510 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table. Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has become better organized during the past several hours. This was confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was 999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance. Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible. 2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied States later this week and into early next week. 3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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