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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-20 10:42:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA MAKES EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 22.3, -108.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 12
2019-09-20 10:42:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...LORENA MAKES EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 108.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength today as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Lorena is likely to begin weakening by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 12
2019-09-20 10:42:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 200842 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 108.5W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 108.5W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 108.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-20 07:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 12:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 22.4, -108.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 11A
2019-09-20 07:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200537 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 108.3W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 108.3 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later this morning and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then move along the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength by tonight as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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