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Hurricane Lorena Update Statement
2019-09-20 11:29:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 736 WTPZ65 KNHC 200929 TCUEP5 Hurricane Lorena Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE... Satellite intensity estimates indicate that Lorena has strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h). SUMMARY OF 330 AM MDT...0930 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-20 11:29:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Lorena was located near 22.3, -108.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-20 10:53:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:53:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:53:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-20 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 933 WTPZ45 KNHC 200844 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A series of METOP-B microwave composite images reveal an improved inner core this morning with a distinct banding eye feature and developing outer bands in the east portion of the cyclone. Lorena is close to hurricane strength, and the initial intensity of 60 kt is a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and a SATCON analysis of 57 kt. Lorena is expected to re-gain hurricane strength very soon as it passes near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some further intensification is forecast before the cyclone traverses much cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures beyond the 36-hour period. Lorena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days, however, the chances of the cyclone interacting and becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in 48 hours or so have increased significantly. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt. The cyclone is currently situated between a mid- to upper-level tropospheric ridge over northern Mexico and larger Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest, while a high amplitude shortwave trough, northwest of Lorena, approaches the west coast of the United States. The global and regional guidance has become more aligned with the interaction with Mario in a couple of days, and has shifted considerably toward the west away from the Baja California peninsula. Subsequently, a major shift of the official forecast has been made to the left of the previous forecast, but the NHC track still lies well to the east of the various multi-model consensus models. At this point, only the legacy GFS global model fails to show binary interaction with Mario. Wind radii adjustments were made based on 0334 UTC scatterometer data. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 22.3N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2019-09-20 10:42:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 200842 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 37 43(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 11 29(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 3 13(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 16 28(44) 2(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) SAN JOSE CABO 50 10 14(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 19(33) X(33) X(33) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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