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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-20 07:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 05:37:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:51:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
2019-09-20 04:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:42:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:42:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-20 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 200241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Geostationary satellite data and a recently received SSM/IS overpass suggest that Lorena has gotten a little better organized since the last advisory, with a central dense overcast forming near or over a small mid-level eye seen in the microwave data. However, the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates indicate that the cyclone has not yet regained hurricane strength. The initial intensity is thus held at 60 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9. Lorena is located between a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico and Tropical Storm Mario to the south-southwest, while a large mid- to upper-level trough is northwest of Lorena over the western United States and the northeastern Pacific. The potential for Lorena to interact with Mario is producing a large spread in the guidance and a low confidence track forecast. Much of the track guidance, including the GFS, HWRF, HMON, and the GFS ensemble mean show Lorena turning so sharply westward around the north side of Mario that it passes south of the Baja California peninsula. At the other extreme is the older version of the GFS, which forecasts Lorena to moved northwestward up the Gulf of California due mainly to the influence of the Mexican ridge and the U. S. trough. The ECMWF model forecasts a track generally over the Baja California peninsula, while the UKMET shows a track into the southern Gulf of California followed by a westward turn across southern Baja. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track in forecasting Lorena to pass near the southern end of the Baja California peninsula, then move generally northwestward near the west coast of the peninsula. The new track lies well to the right of the various consensus models, but it lies to the left of the ECWMF and the old GFS model. Adjustments to the forecast track may occur once the amount of influence Mario will have on Lorena become more apparent. The intensity forecast is also very uncertain due to the track forecast uncertainties. The new intensity forecast is based on the track forecast that keeps Lorena over the water near the west coast of the the Baja California peninsula, with the cyclone re-gaining hurricane status before it moves over colder sea surface temperatures and eventually dissipates over the cold water. However there are three alternate scenarios. First, the GFS suggests the possibility that Mario will absorb Lorena and cause it to completely dissipate. Second, the older version of the GFS, with its forecast over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, would could allow Lorena to be stronger than currently forecast. Finally, the ECMWF's track over the Baja California Peninsula would also cause Lorena to weaken faster than currently forecast. The forecast track requires new warnings and watches for portions of Baja California del Sur. Additional warnings and watches may be required for this area on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-09-20 04:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 200240 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 107.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-09-20 04:40:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 200240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 17(28) X(28) X(28) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 20 70(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 2 49(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 20(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JOSE CABO 34 13 64(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAN JOSE CABO 50 5 39(44) 3(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAN JOSE CABO 64 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 18(18) 22(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LA PAZ 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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