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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-21 10:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210858 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 The center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E moved inland a little before 0600 UTC over the south-central portion of the Baja California peninsula with estimated maximum winds of about 30 kt. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 0400 and 0500 UTC showed a narrow swath of southeasterly winds of 35-40 kt over the Gulf of California well to the northeast of the circulation center. These winds were likely being enhanced by the local terrain and may not directly be associated with the depression. The cyclone is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, but this activity is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the circulation due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. It appears that the low- and mid-level centers of the system have separated, and since even stronger shear and land interaction with mainland Mexico is expected, weakening is forecast. The depression will likely become a remnant low or dissipate entirely in about 24 hours when it is forecast to be over the southwestern United States. The system is moving north-northeastward at about 15 kt, embedded in the flow between a mid-level high pressure system over Mexico and a cut off low well to the west of Baja California. This general motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The main hazard from the depression is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico. Portions of these areas could receive rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible during the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.7N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 29.9N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 32.9N 110.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162015)
2015-09-21 10:56:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 27.7, -112.7 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 3
2015-09-21 10:56:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 210856 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015 ...DEPRESSION INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 112.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 112.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern Mexico later this morning, and move into southern Arizona this evening or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the depression will likely degenerate to a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Baja California peninsula, the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, and Arizona and New Mexico in the United States through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches could occur over portions of southern California through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico today, especially in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-09-21 10:56:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 210856 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAHIA KINO 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-09-21 10:55:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 210855 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 112.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 112.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.9N 111.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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