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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-21 04:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 02:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 02:52:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-21 04:43:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 The tropical cyclone has not intensified this evening, with much of the deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak analyses from both SAB and TAFB. Since the center is expected to move over the south-central Baja California peninsula tonight and move back inland later tomorrow while southwesterly shear is forecast to remain strong, no increase in strength is expected. The influence of land should reduce the cyclone to a remnant low pressure area over Arizona by late Monday, and the surface center should lose its identity shortly thereafter. The center is not easy to locate on geostationary satellite imagery, so the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 010/13. A mid-level ridge to the east of the depression along with a cyclonic circulation to the west should induce a north- northeastward motion through Monday. The track guidance is in general agreement on a slight acceleration through tomorrow morning, and is a little to the right of the previous model runs. The official forecast is shifted slightly to the east of the previous one. This is close to the latest model consensus with a little additional weight given to the reliable ECMWF solution. Moisture associated with the depression is spreading northward, and expected to cause heavy rainfall across portions of the Baja California peninsula, northwestern mainland Mexico, southern California, and Arizona during the next several days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 26.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.7N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 31.5N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1200Z 34.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-09-21 04:43:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 210243 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P PENASCO 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162015)
2015-09-21 04:39:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 26.2, -113.6 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2015-09-21 04:39:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 210239 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 113.6W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area in the southwestern United States, including flash flood watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to Mexico, please monitor products issued by the meteorological service of Mexico. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 113.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 15 mph. A turn toward the north-northeast at a slightly faster forward speed is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the south-central Baja California peninsula tonight, across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern Mexico on Monday, and into southern Arizona Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next day or so, and the depression is likely to become a remnant low Monday night and dissipate soon thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of the Baja California peninsula, as well as the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora through Tuesday. Moisture from this system is expected to spread northward and produce heavy rains over portions of southern California and Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across central portions of the Baja California peninsula and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico through Monday, especially in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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