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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 4

2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 620 WTPZ31 KNHC 051436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 97.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 97.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The depression is expected to continue moving west-northwestward but at a faster forward speed for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel to, but remain offshore of, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 621 WTPZ41 KNHC 051436 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Latest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. The center is estimated to be on the northern side of a small circular area of deep convection, with a developing band of convection over the southern semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Since the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is a rather uncertain 290/10 kt. The primary steering mechanisms for the system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing cyclone to the west. It is not clear just how much interaction will occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some of the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day time frame. The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous one but near the southern side of the guidance envelope. This is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track. The GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the circulation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant. In fact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the tropical cyclone within a day or so. The ECMWF indicates that this absorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast calls for dissipation in 3-4 days. If the western circulation does not become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more than indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance. Interest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 13.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 668 FOPZ11 KNHC 051436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 100W 34 2 39(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 100W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

2018-08-05 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 577 WTPZ21 KNHC 051435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 97.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 97.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 96.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 97.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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