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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2018-08-04 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 206 FOPZ11 KNHC 042034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 19(33) X(33) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2018-08-04 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 973 WTPZ21 KNHC 042033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 95.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 95.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.9N 96.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.6N 98.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 95.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E (EP1/EP112017)

2017-08-05 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 5 the center of Eleven-E was located near 20.3, -111.7 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 6

2017-08-05 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 052037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 111.7W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 111.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The cyclone is forecast to continue on a north-northwest or northwest heading with a decrease in forward speed until dissipation occurs tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue through the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number public advisory cyclone