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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-08-05 04:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 478 WTPZ21 KNHC 050237 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 97.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.2N 99.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 95.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2018-08-04 22:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Aug 2018 20:35:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Aug 2018 21:34:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-04 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 4 the center of Eleven-E was located near 12.4, -95.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-08-04 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 281 WTPZ31 KNHC 042034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 95.0W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 95.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with some increase in forward speed forecast by Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-04 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 280 WTPZ41 KNHC 042034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018 Satellite images indicate that the disturbance located over the far eastern Pacific has become significantly better organized throughout the day, with the formation of a well-defined low pressure center and deep convection organized in a distinct curved band. Based on these criteria, the system is being designated as a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt in accordance with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Because the system has congealed so quickly, the initial motion is uncertain but estimated to be 285/11 kt. The cyclone's future motion will ultimately be dictated by a large mid-tropospheric ridge to its north and its proximity to another disturbance located about 450 n mi to the west. A west-northwestward motion at a nearly constant speed is expected during the next 2-3 days due to the ridge. After that time, the cyclone could begin to slingshot around the northern side of the larger weather system to its west. Many of the track models are not handling the depression very well; the GFS barely depicts a surface low from the get-go, and the HWRF does not appear to be accounting sufficiently for the possibility of binary interaction. As a result, the NHC official track forecast matches the consensus of the ECMWF and UKMET, the only two models which appear to have a decent grasp on the situation. Although the depression will be moving over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius over the next 2-3 days, the upper-level wind environment may not be ideal due to possible outflow from the larger disturbance to the west. As a result, the official intensity forecast is not too aggressive and is essentially close to the ICON intensity consensus. Even though the ECMWF and UKMET were used for the track forecast, the two models disagree on the cyclone's ultimate demise. The ECMWF has the system absorbed by the other disturbance by day 4, while the UKMET keeps it distinct and holds it just beyond the forecast period. As a compromise, the official forecast shows dissipation or absorption by day 5, but the confidence in this forecast is low. Based on the forecast, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, only a slight deviation in the forecast track or an increase in size could bring those winds closer to the coast, and interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 12.9N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.6N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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